Arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov (Wikipedia)

Resolves Yes if Pavel Durov is actually going to prison as a result of this whole situation.

Resolves No once the charges are dropped, or if there is a non-prison sentence, or if there is some other conclusion to all of this. Also resolves No if three years from now there is no meaningful conclusion to this story.

Update (Aug 26): Regarding the exact definition of “go to jail” in this market - Pavel Durov has to be sentenced to no less than three months of actual prison (and start serving it), or has to spend 1.5 times as that (4.5 months) awaiting his trial in something generally resembling regular European/American prison, for this market to be resolved Yes. A sufficiently strong combination of both, or anything else resembling such incarceration, also will be a Yes. Thank you.