Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?
17
22
370
2028
4%
chance

This resolves "Yes" if the named individual is found guilty in court.

If there is no court judgement but I am 99% confident that they have done fraud (eg credible accusations with evidence from credible sources). There will be an open survey with at least the options "Yes" and "Not enough information" . If 70% of people answer "Yes" then this market will resolve "Yes". This survey cannot be repeated for 3 months.

If the market doesn't resolve "Yes", it resolves "No" at close date.


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https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHrHsrQGyr4NnqCA7/we-must-be-very-clear-fraud-in-the-service-of-effective?commentId=Z8xp59GK4EwnAni4X

there are strong incentives in the crypto space to not call out other investors and projects doing shady stuff because this reduces the probability you will be invited to funding rounds, given access to dealflow etc.

If you're pursuing earning to give in crypto, you should be aware that staying quiet about all the scams you see is almost a requirement if you wanna make big money. (This is assuming ofcourse that you're not involved in the scams yourself.) There is not a single rich person in crypto (starting with vitalik himself, and every exchange CEO) who is unaware of this, most people keep quiet about it and do not name-and-shame individual projects who scam.

I myself chose to stay quiet about this for a long time after I left the space because "what if I later realise I want access to the ludicrous amounts of money here".