Who will win the Ecuador 2025 presidential election (first round if someone gets a majority (or otherwise wins in the first round - 40% with a 10% margin over the opponent), otherwise second round).
If postponed beyond May 30, 2025 - this will resolve as Other.
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@MaybeNotDepends noboa leads in most exit polls (that I know of), including one with more than 77 thousand observations
@MiguelSanchezB Not sure a poll with > 10k responses is ever trustworthy. You tend to get a lack of proper weighing.
@MaybeNotDepends And just because they got it right this time, doesn't necessarily mean their methodology is good. You can be lucky. For instance - who was leaking partially finished election polls when voting wasn't finished? How were they having a random sample that controlled for the time of day that different groups of people vote?