Resolves YES if someone on Manifold earns Ṁ1,200,000 or more total profit before August 31st 2023 23:59:59 UTC. If this dosn't happen resolves NO.
This market will resolves using the official Manifold Leaderboard: Top Traders of All Time OR using the "Trading profits" value from the profile page of the user in question.
Caveats:
1. Several people have to confirm in the comments that the resolution criteria are met. A photoshoped screenshot wold not trigger the resolution.
2. Any single point on the personal "Trading profits" graph that is Ṁ1,200,000 or more is sufficient for the YES resolution. A "weird profit spike" still counts.
3. If Manifold admins discontinue the Leaderboard feature (it's no longer available through any link) this market resolves N/A regardless if the total profits value is still displayed on the profile page.
4. If Manifold admins rollback the windfall profits from the self-resolving markets (like the WvM) this market still resolves acording to the resolution criteria above.
5. Intentional total profit value manipulation by strategic betting by anyone will not be disqualified, and this market still resolves acording to the resolution criteria above.
6. Intentional total profit value manipulation using bugs / alt-accounts / bots / or fake accounts WILL be disqualified provided sufficient proof, and this market will close, untill the admins take necessary actions and/or rollback the exploited profits, and only after that the market will be reopened. If this market is ever resolved as YES by mistake and later admins ban the user or rollback the exploited profits this market will re-resolve as N/A.
7. In case of a dispute the poll will be held on how this market should resolve.
8. Any value on any profit graph before May 1st 2023 will not trigger the resolution.
This list of caveats might change based on the feedback in the comment section.
I myself will not bet on this market.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ417 | |
| 2 | Ṁ306 | |
| 3 | Ṁ127 | |
| 4 | Ṁ94 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
As per the vote below and my own judgement I'm disqualifying June 24th - June 28th period, because the admins rolled back the profits. Literally no one voted for N/A, so I'm reopening this market.
❗ If the admins re-resolve the /JonnyBairstow/will-the-sum-of-shares-on-any-marke-99ccfd2db099 for the second time to YES and issue a fine to Catnee for indirectly using bugs/alt to cause a the initial resolution, then I will immediately resolve this market YES ❗
Otherwise the usual rules from the description of this market apply.
@MayMeta I vote YES - it should count.
6. Intentional total profit value manipulation using bugs / alt-accounts / bots / or fake accounts WILL be disqualified provided sufficient proof,
The profits did not source from a bug/exploit. They were from other traders in a market that resolved based on an exploit. The printed mana was returned to the system within minutes and was never on any leaderboards, so it isn't "profit manipulation using a bug" although it is "winning a market using one".
However, @Leviathan and @Behemoth should be excluded from consideration by this point, since they traded only with each other and any temporary profits were sourced from an exploit.
4. If Manifold admins rollback the windfall profits from the self-resolving markets (like the WvM) this market still resolves acording to the resolution criteria above.
The admins rolled the profits back and the market ended up self-resolving, but that doesn't affect resolution.
Also: Consider that WvM had several "exploits" in play: API keys on hundreds of zombie accounts farming liquidity bonuses and trader bonuses, paid referrals, printing mana without paying for it by refunding a credit card. And it still counts, because the profits were sourced from other traders.
@Mira I was inclinced to agree with you until I read #6 in full.
"6. Intentional total profit value manipulation using bugs / alt-accounts / bots / or fake accounts WILL be disqualified provided sufficient proof, and this market will close, untill the admins take necessary actions and/or rollback the exploited profits, and only after that the market will be reopened. If this market is ever resolved as YES by mistake and later admins ban the user or rollback the exploited profits this market will re-resolve as N/A."
There was intentional total profit value manipulation using bugs, alt-accounts and bots. There was sufficient proof. The market closed and the admins took necessary actions and rolled back the exploited profits.
Rule 6 doesn't specify that it has to be DIRECTLY using bugs / alt-accounts. The profits were from other traders, but still indirectly caused by bugs / alt-accounts.
Marcus already said the rest above.
I'm still waiting for an official admin decision on /JonnyBairstow/will-the-sum-of-shares-on-any-marke-99ccfd2db099 . If that market is re-resolved to N/A, or @Catnee' profits are rolled back before 2023-06-27 23:59:59 UTC then I will disqualify this event, and the market will be reopened.
Otherwise, I will resolve it YES, because @Catnee's profits were indeed above Ṁ1,200,000 for about an hour on June 24th, and it seems to me that his profits came from a legit prediction that a mana exploit will be found in two weeks.