@SneakySly βοΈ@NcyRocks (N.C. Young) βοΈ@MartinRandall βοΈ@BTE (Brian T. Edwards) βοΈ@SG βοΈ@Gabrielle βοΈ@NicoDelon (Nico D)@BoltonBailey βοΈ@MarcusAbramovitch βοΈ@jack βοΈ@egroj (JAAM) βοΈ@citrinitas (Anton)@Conflux βοΈβοΈ means "Trustworthy-ish"
βοΈ means "Admin / Member of the core team"
These 20 outstanding individuals all have record-breaking Daily prediction streaks. Almost* every day they open Manifold to make their valuable predictions, and often post insightful comments. Their dedication is making this website better and more entertaining for the rest of us.
Who will break their Daily prediction streak first out of these 20 individuals?
Every two days at 07:10 UTC I will run a script**, that determines the streak count of all 20 individuals. This market will close as soon as any of the streak counts falls below 10. In case of a draw (two or more people break their streak at the same day) a separate script will be run to determine for which user the stretch of time between their latest bet and the moment their streak was broken is the longest. In every case exactly one 'winner' will be chosen with a weight of 100%.
People are allowed to bet on themselves, both for profit and for a drammatic effect before leaving Manifold.
User id's will be stored instead of usernames in the resolution script, to prevent disputes in case of someone changing their username. I will post any changes in the comments section.
If "Daily prediction streak" feature is discontinued or fundamentally reformed, or the streak value becomes incomputable by Manifold Users, then this market resolves to N/A. If more than 10 people break their streak at the same day due to a bug or for any other reason, then this market resolves to N/A.
If I become inactive on Manifold for more than 7 days and there's proof that one of the 20 users broke their streak, you are free to ask admins for help to resolve this market instead of me.
* With the exception of skipped days, forgiven by "streak forgiveness".
** I am not obligated to disclose the source code of the aforementioned scripts, and in case of a dispute, I will contact the admins to get official information on the user streak counts. If proof will be uncovered that the resolution is wrong, I will re-resolve this market.
π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ122 | |
| 2 | αΉ22 | |
| 3 | αΉ22 |
Yup!
username: @AlexLiesman, currentBettingStreak: 1, streakForgiveness: 0
Streak broken, resolving this market to @AlexLiesman
Also, we got two close encounters π
username: @NcyRocks, currentBettingStreak: 264, streakForgiveness: 2
username: @SneakySly, currentBettingStreak: 277, streakForgiveness: 2
I just realized, that if someone wants to resolve this market intentionally (as themselves), they'd have to miss out on streak bonuses worth 300+-50 mana (assuming 4+-1 forgiveness points). In our case it would function as a "manipulation tax", and might discourage some people. π
apparently api bets do not award streak bonus anymore...
@FranklinBaldo Good on the whole! Streak bonuses are a non-trivial source of mana inflation, so they should only be awarded for reliably authentic engagement.
@FranklinBaldo you are correct. Basically all API bets are now ignored by the streak (and other) bonus logic. This change was made last night:
https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/blob/2f6a3517a921662764072d910d12a9ad47516ba3/backend/functions/src/triggers/on-create-bet.ts#L94
Tbh this might make the resolution of this market faster.
@FranklinBaldo you had that great market on AI CEO running with 25 Mana or so bets daily, right? cool stuff, i thought. Also, note, Franklin's new daily bet market, haha that's commitment: https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/my-daily-bet-stock
Upd: the market below has been resolved.
You might also like this market: https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/will-5-or-more-people-with-streaks
If just 3 of you will leave a comment there (with a screenshot of your streak), then it resolves to YES. π
@XComhghall yes, @BTE got 2 "streak forgiveness points" subtracted for those 2 days he skipped, now he has 4 left.
In total 6 points (1 per every month since Dec 2022) were given to all 20 people mentioned in this market, and the number of those points has to fall to 0, before the streak is broken and reset to 0. So the wait time between somebody becoming inactive on Manifold and this market resolving will currently be at most 6 days.
The core problem here is that those points accumulate. So, in theory, some of the people in this market might end up with 13 forgiveness points on Jan 1st 2024, and then take a ~2 week break from Manifold, and their streak will still be unbroken when they return. This logic feels wrong. Such a long break no longer feels as streak. So I might advocate for capping forgiveness points to 3, in the #dev-and-api channel on Discord. I will keep you updated if this change gets implemented.
Oh, by the way, this "minimum wait time" makes it harder to intentionally trigger this market's resolution. Because a person determined to break their streak would have to take a forgiveness-point number of days away from Manifold. Which might be hard, and not worth the profit here.
@MayMeta Why not have us report our streak every day and the first time one of our numbers doesn't +1 that is the person it resolves to. So like every day we submit between noon and midnight. If we forget to submit it is as good as missing a day. What do you think?
In fact, if a reporting method is used, I precommit to not reporting here. I won't even bet on myself, so that's free mana for anyone who's interested.
@Gabrielle This market will 100% remain automatic, so don't worry about reporting anything :)
@BTE If I have to choose between the official Manifold "Daily prediction streak" logic, and a custom logic of obligatory daily activity, I would choose the official logic.
1) It's easier to follow and makes my script simpler;
2) It corresponds to a UI element that you all see daily;
3) For consistency with other "streak" markets;
4) It makes this market less vulnerable to manipulation, an therefore, less volatile.
Although I might make a market "Who will lose a Forgiveness point first?" tomorrow. I bet it'll be much more chaotic and eventful. But the set of 20 people will be slightly different, to select for "record breaking forgiveness point count" owners.
@MayMeta Thanks. Do all 20 people on the list have 6 forgiveness points? Do they not have different number of forgiveness points?
@XComhghall I suspect that Iβve already spent some of my six points that Iβve earned, but itβs hard to check for certain.
@Gabrielle Notifications, then click 'Prediction Streak'
@jack I was asking because I would think that they all started with (when this market was created) and currently have different numbers of forgiveness points.
Wait. We are referring to the same forgiveness points, right? Was the streak system / forgiveness established in Dec. 2022, which is why there are 6 forgiveness points total? Or are the 6 points something MayMeta used for calculation / convenience, but not Manifold's actual forgiveness points?
@XComhghall No, no, I'm talking about the official ones, denoted at streakForgiveness in the source code. And yes, you can all check how many of them you have left through streak notifications. π
I think once enough mana is put into this, there will be no reason not to break your own streak to take all the profit, other than pride for their streak, which multiple people have expressed that they donβt really care about.
@TobyBW hmm, but what if I bet on myself but then someone else stopped first that day?
This market is about you people! β€
If you're rooting for yourself not to break a Streak - It makes sense to bet against all of your opponents π
@jack @SG @BTE @Conflux @SneakySly @NcyRocks @MartinRandall @MarcusAbramovitch @JoshuaB @Gabrielle @egroj @BoltonBailey @Predictor @ScottLawrence @citrinitas @FranklinBaldo @NicoDelon @AlexLiesman @zzq @A
What will happen if this market goes to the close date but nobody has stopped the streak? (I think that the probability of that is quite low, this this is not impossible)
