Will the CFTC finalize a rule that Bans US election betting before Jan 20, 2025?
17
403
2025
41%
chance

The CFTC has proposed a regulation that would ban all US election betting. See here for more info: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-cftc-seeks-ban-derivatives-bets-elections-calamities-2024-05-10/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final rule is issued (regardless of the date the rule becomes effective) before the Presidential Inauguration on January 20, 2025. Otherwise it resolves to "no."

I will determine the outcome based on whether it is listed on this page, or elsewhere at CFTC.gov as a final rule, at the time of inauguration: https://comments.cftc.gov/FederalRegister/Final.aspx

The market will resolve to "yes" as long as the final regulation substantively bans election betting in the United States. If, on the other hand, the final rule were to be altered from the current proposal to allow election betting by going through a specified regulatory process, then the market will resolve to "no."

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Caroline pham is cool. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rZf-y5bsro Neither Pham or Mersinger made any pro election event contracts statements, it was process based (Pham) and mandate (Mersinger). At best, the can will get kicked, but majority rules so that seems unlikely.

Oh gosh, has CLICKBAIT random capitalized words ARRIVED for Manifold market titles?

@MaximLott you won't BELIEVE how bad this site can get. This latest trend will SHOCK you.

@BrunoParga 😂 in defense of this style though, it's just translating human speech cadence and emphasis into text.

@MaximLott is it though? I think usual old text does that perfectly well.

@MaximLott just so you know, I've asked mods to BAN clickbait-case on market titles and linked to this market. I don't blame you, you're just playing the game - I just want the game to be different for everyone. Nothing personal.

@BrunoParga A better solution might be allowing italics in headlines

bought Ṁ10 YES

@BrunoParga I have a lot of opinions on question title standardization but I also have the opinion that the guy who made electionbettingodds.com can do whatever he wants here

@MaximLott I have no opinion on your use of CAPS, but I will say that in this case emphasizing BANNING with US right next to it makes it read "banning us" which is presumably not what you intended