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This should not have been resolved YES, IMO.

I've closed the market, until it's clarified how this market will work going forward.

@mods I hold a large position here, so I can't do it, but the creator is inactive (pinged 2 days ago), so someone needs to clarify the status of this market. Does the pardon count for Yes? If not can it resolve now or do we wait until the end of Trump's term in case for some reason he pardons and commutes?

Ross was pardoned, which as I understand it is not considered to be a commutation.

@yum Perhaps a commutation is still possible in the future.

But a commutation and a pardon, although both a form of clemency, are totally distinct AFAIK.

@yum Googling, I get:

A commutation is generally defined as a lessening of the criminal penalty, whereas a pardon is often defined as the termination of the criminal penalty.

To me it seems a pardon is also a commutation if the person is still in prison?

@MaximLott

https://x.com/RealRossU/status/1817694204560314854

This market considers the opposite counterfactual, will Ulbricht's sentence be commuted if Trump is not elected:

Ironically I'd actually consider voting for him if this market was ~95%, but it seems people share my opinion of his trustworthiness on that subject.

Not advising you to vote for him, but 45% is also pretty non-trivial.

Eh, I'd say it's still negative EV overall, for me. Hard to judge such minuscule quantities accurately though - an individual vote (especially in a relatively uncompetitive district) is worth so close to zero that the time investment to calculate with it becomes a nontrivial portion of the value calculation.

Yes, in a non-swing state your vote really makes no difference and is about as important as responding to a Manifold poll. (*Regarding the Presidency. Local races may still be important.)

Would this market be allowed to resolve N/A if Trump were not elected @ManifoldPolitics , seeing that there is a stance on markets to not resolve N/A?

@ScipioFabius We haven't formalized a new policy on this yet so my position is that Maxim Lott can do whatever he wants.

@ScipioFabius @ManifoldPolitics yes, it would resolve to N/A.