Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, in any official U.S. Senate general election or concurrent special election in the 2026 election cycle, the final certified vote margin between the top two candidates is 1,000 votes or fewer (i.e., $\le 1,000$ votes).

• Resolves NO if all 2026 U.S. Senate general and concurrent special elections are officially certified with margins strictly greater than 1,000 votes between the first- and second-place finishers.

• Primary elections, runoffs from primaries, and internal party conventions do not count. General election runoffs (if applicable) do qualify.

• Margins will be evaluated based on the final official certified canvass results from each state's respective secretary of state or chief election authority, as compiled by The Associated Press or Ballotpedia.

• If any race goes to a recount or post-election legal challenge, the market will not resolve until the final certified results of that contest are finalized.

Background

• Statewide federal races decided by fewer than 1,000 votes are rare but not unprecedented. Notable historical examples include the 2008 Minnesota Senate race (Al Franken vs. Norm Coleman), which ended in a 312-vote margin following a comprehensive recount, and the 1974 New Hampshire Senate race (John A. Durkin vs. Louis C. Wyman), which was initially separated by just two votes before a second election was called.

• Sub-1,000-vote margins are most statistically plausible in smaller-population swing states where the total vote pool is smaller, or in multi-candidate fields with competitive third-party vote shares.

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