Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030? | Manifold

Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030?

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26

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2030

85%

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1D

1W

1M

ALL

Creating markets for @ScottAlexander's predictions here: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/semaglutidonomics

(all predictions are conditional on no singularity or global catastrophe)

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My doctor friend said this is "almost certain". And there are now new alternatives coming out that are supposed to be more powerful & easier to produce.

No global catastrophe? Even if the catastrophe does not take down this market?

How does this resolve if no medicare?

Will medicare cover semaglutide (or an alternative) in 2030?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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