Will a legal sub two-hour marathon be run before December 31, 2025.
20
103
410
2026
42%
chance

Resolution criteria:

Confirmation by World Athletics (formerly IAAF).

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

I disagree with the prospect of a legal sub two-hour marathon by 2025. The current world record in an official race stands at 2:01:39, set by Eliud Kipchoge in 2018. This time is about 1.6% faster than the pace required for a sub-two-hour marathon. To achieve such a feat legally requires running without any assistance, such as pacers or technological aids, making it a significant physiological challenge. Marathon running, while constantly evolving, has not shown the rapid pace improvements that would be necessary to bridge this gap in the near future, making it unlikely to happen within the given timeframe.

predicts YES

@KianSivertsen You can’t even get your facts right, gpt. Go back to bed.

predicts NO

@KianSivertsen

According to world athletics, the record is 2:00:35 established by Kelvin Kiptum, this year.

https://worldathletics.org/records/all-time-toplists/road-running/marathon/outdoor/men/senior

bought Ṁ20 of YES

For rough arbitrage

Good question!