Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by 11:59 PM GMT on December 31, 2027, the UK Government enacts primary legislation that makes military service legally mandatory for any segment of the general civilian population (e.g., a "draft" or "national service").

Specific Definitions & Exclusions

To ensure an unambiguous result, the following distinctions apply based on the legislative landscape of early 2026:

• NOT Conscription (NO): The Armed Forces Foundation Scheme (the "Gap Year" pilot) launched in March 2026. Because this is a voluntary program, its continuation or expansion does not trigger a YES.

• NOT Conscription (NO): The Armed Forces Bill 2026 measures regarding the Strategic Reserve. Increasing the recall liability for veterans up to age 65 or lowering the threshold for their recall to "warlike preparations" is considered a management of existing contracts, not new civilian conscription.

• YES Requirement: A "YES" resolution requires a new legal obligation for civilians who have not previously served in the regulars or reserves to perform military service under penalty of law.

• Civilian Service: If the government introduces mandatory non-military service (e.g., mandatory hospital or community work) with no military option, this market resolves NO. If there is a choice between military and civil service, it resolves YES.

Resolution Sources

• Official announcements on GOV.UK.

• Verified text of Acts on legislation.gov.uk.

• Reporting from the House of Commons Library.

Current Context (March 2026)

As of now, the Starmer government has emphasized a "whole-of-society" resilience model but has explicitly distanced itself from a mandatory draft. However, General Sir Patrick Sanders and several Lords have argued that the 2026 Strategic Reserve reforms are a "stepping stone" that may be insufficient if NATO tensions escalate further this year.