Resolution. Resolves YES if, at or before 23:59 UK time on 5 April 2030, the UK government commits to continue the Pension Tax Allowance into the 2030-31 tax year with no end date. A Budget, Spring Statement or other HM Treasury fiscal event document can settle this market. So can a published bill, draft legislation, a statutory instrument, an Act or a written ministerial statement. No other document counts, including a press release on its own. A statement must commit to keeping the allowance permanently or indefinitely, and silence on duration does not count. Legislation must continue it with no end date. A review clause sets no end date, and a changed taper still counts. The relief can carry any name, but it must apply across the UK. For the period it covers, and at the rates for England, it must remove income tax from people over State Pension age with total income from all sources up to the full new State Pension.

Resolves NO otherwise. A fixed-term extension alone does not count. Plans to review or consult, manifesto pledges, a general rise in the Personal Allowance, a relief with a lower income limit and commitments after the deadline do not count. A qualifying commitment still counts if the government later withdraws it or Parliament does not enact it.

Dan Neidle of Tax Policy Associates predicted on 28 October 2026 that the allowance "will now become permanent". The Budget 2026 document applies it from 6 April 2027 until 5 April 2030 and says the government will consider later arrangements in the usual way.

This market closes at 23:59 UK time on 5 April 2030. The creator resolves it YES as soon as a qualifying source appears, and NO after the close if none has.

The creator may trade in this market, holds no shares at creation and will add a dated holdings line after any trade. The sources above decide the resolution.

The 5 April 2030 deadline stays fixed whatever the date of the next election or fiscal event. Max Ghenis created this personal play-money market. PolicyEngine uses prices on Max's markets to help decide which measures to build and test.