Jesus of Nazareth is a figure who, according to Christian belief, lived during the first century CE and whose life and teachings form the foundation of Christianity. Despite a consensus among most historians today that Jesus existed as a historical figure, the lack of direct historical sources from the time has led to a small minority of scholars known as mythicists challenging this consensus. A significant shift in this scholarly consensus, either for or against the historical existence of Jesus, could have profound implications for our understanding of religious history and the origins of Christianity. This prediction market will track whether the scholarly consensus in the year 3000 will maintain that Jesus existed as a historical figure.

Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?

Here are some definitions of key terms:

1. Scholarly Consensus: In the context of this prediction market, "scholarly consensus" will be defined as the prevalent viewpoint shared by at least 85% of active scholars in the fields relevant to the historical study of Jesus, namely religious studies, history, and archaeology. Active scholars will include only people or AIs who have dedicated a significant fraction of their life studying the subject in the academic sense — as opposed to spiritual or other senses — and are recognized by others as having extensive knowledge or talent in the relevant historical matters.

2. Existence as a Historical Figure: For the purposes of this market, "Jesus existed as a historical figure" will mean that a person named Jesus lived during the first century CE, was recognized by many as a moral or spiritual teacher, and was executed under the direction of Pontius Pilate, even if other details or supernatural elements associated with his life are subject to historical and theological debate.

This question will be resolved according to the best available evidence, and best judgement of whoever is assigned to resolve this question. If in the year 3000, there exists a scholarly consensus that Jesus existed as a historical figure, then this question resolves to YES, and otherwise to NO. If there is no consensus either way, it resolves to NO.