Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to Richard Dawkins)? | Manifold

Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to Richard Dawkins)?

8

170Ṁ1402

2030

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), Richard Dawkins confirms that Jesus has returned. Resolves NO otherwise.

May resolve N/A if Richard Dawkins dies and, in my judgement, if he were alive he might confirm that Jesus has returned.

Market idea from https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-82823/comment/39227249

Scott Alexander on Substack

" A low-effort way would have been to base resolution on announcements from the Catholic Pope." I don't know if I trust someone who's pre-selected for being maximally willing to believe miraculous stories involving Jesus. I'd pick Richard Dawkins.

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