Will more than one million people be deported from the United States in 2025?
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Plus
21
Ṁ1878
2026
21%
chance

This question will resolve to "YES" if the total number of deportations of individuals from the United States exceeds 1,000,000 for the calendar year 2025. Deportations are defined here as the formal removal of individuals from the U.S. who are deemed inadmissible or have violated immigration laws, following an order by an immigration judge, or expedited removal under immigration authorities.

To determine the final number of deportations, the primary source will be the annual deportation statistics published by the U.S. government, particularly from the DHS Office of Immigration Statistics or U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The relevant report is typically published within a few months after the close of the year and includes data on deportation activities and removals.

If DHS or ICE does not release a report for 2025, alternative sources such as credible news organizations (e.g., The New York Times, The Washington Post) citing official DHS or ICE statements, or any other relevant credible sources, will be accepted. In the absence of any credible, published deportation data for 2025, this question will remain unresolved.

Deportations counts both border removals and interior removals, so long as they are classified as "deportations" by relevant sources.

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From Trump's campaign website, as his #1 and #2 priority in office:

  1. "Seal the border and stop the migrant invasion"

  2. "Carry out the largest deportation operation in american history"

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