Will the US admit more than 2 million immigrants in any year before 2025?
Will the US admit more than 2 million immigrants in any year before 2025?
4
90Ṁ263Dec 31
6%
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The resolution source will be the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics for the year 2025. I am specifically going to look at the number of people obtaining lawful permanent resident status. I will also wait for the yearbook to come out which may take a while but the relevant years are 2022, 2023 and 2024.
For previous years, see here:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
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