Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?
Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?
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10kṀ22k2026
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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1M
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From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question resolves as Yes if the total number of expulsions or removals reported by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for FY 2025 is at least double the number shown for FY 2024 at the time. If the number reported for FY 2025 is less than double that of FY 2024, this question resolves as No.
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What is Manifold?
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Are our predictions accurate?
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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