Will a protest attracting 10,000 participants against AGI development occur before 2025?
7
67
190
2025
10%
chance

As Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) continues to progress, it's sparked debates and controversies surrounding ethics, safety, job displacement, and societal changes. As a result, public demonstrations, including protests, have been organized to voice concerns and demand regulations or a halt in AGI development.

Before January 1st, 2025, will there be at least one organized protest, attracting a minimum of 10,000 participants, against the development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2025, credible sources confirm that there has been at least one organized protest against the development of AGI anywhere in the world, which has attracted a minimum of 10,000 participants.

For the purpose of this question:

  1. A "protest" refers to a public demonstration or gathering where people express their dissatisfaction or opposition towards a particular issue or event. It does not include online protests, digital campaigns, or social media movements.

  2. "Participants" refers to people who are physically present at the protest. They could be protesters, speakers, organizers, or people who have joined in solidarity. Police officers, security personnel, and bystanders are not included in this count.

  3. "Against the development of AGI" refers to the protest having a primary objective related to opposing the development, implementation, or deployment of Artificial General Intelligence. For example, if the demonstrators consistently shouted "AGI, not for me, let's keep our future AI-free!", that would count.

  4. Credible sources of confirmation can include news outlets, police reports, statements from protest organizers, or documented photo or video evidence. Social media posts will only be considered credible if accompanied by verifiable photo or video evidence.

The question will resolve negatively if no such protest takes place before January 1st, 2025. If there is no credible documentation provided by the deadline that verifies the occurrence and participant count of such a protest, the question will resolve as N/A.

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GPT 4 on base rates (after describing BLM as the biggest protest movement in the US in 2020):

Pinpointing the exact largest single-day Black Lives Matter protest in a specific city in 2020 is challenging, primarily due to the decentralized nature of the movement and the difficulty in accurately estimating crowd sizes. However, one of the largest recorded single gatherings in a city during this period appears to have taken place in Washington, D.C., on June 6, 2020.

According to various reports, tens of thousands of protesters assembled in the U.S. capital on this day, making it one of the most substantial protests in the city in recent years. However, specific numbers have varied, and an exact number is hard to confirm.

This specific day of protest was part of a larger movement that saw a wave of demonstrations across the country. According to data from the Crowd Counting Consortium, there were protests in 550 different places across the U.S. on June 6, making it one of the peak days for Black Lives Matter protests in 2020 [1][2].

Remember, estimating crowd sizes is a notoriously difficult task, and estimates can often vary between sources. As such, these figures should be viewed as approximate.

References:

1. Buchanan, L., Bui, Q., & Patel, J. K. (2020). Black Lives Matter May Be the Largest Movement in U.S. History. The New York Times. [Link](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html)

2. Crowd Counting Consortium: [Data](https://sites.google.com/view/crowdcountingconsortium/data)

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I don’t think an abstract issue like AGI will be on the same order of magnitude as BLM, so I’m betting no