Resolves Yes if at any point after 6:09PM EDT on Aug 06, 2024 Trump's odds for the US Presidency 2024 exceed 50% (>= 50.1%) on https://electionbettingodds.com/
Edit:
In order to avoid scenarios where a broken data source leads to a temporary, erroneous, discontinuous jump across the 50% boundary, this market will use the following resolution criteria:
If any point on the "last day" chart (plotted every ~30minutes) exceed 50% this market will resolve yes, otherwise no.
1,000
1.00
Thanks for asking. Not broken — my site normalizes each market’s numbers to force them to not add up to over 100%, since that’s impossible.
Copying this question from another thread:
How does this resolve if there's a glitch in the electionbettingodds chart, causing one of the candidate's odds to change discontinuously for 1 data point, or a few minutes, or something
It looks like this has happened once or twice if you go back and look at the chart history. Like, say the odds for Harris shift by 15% downward for one minute and then immediately rise (based on like, one of the four data sources going to zero for a second or something due to an error).
Thanks for raising this question.
I believe in order to stay as close to the original intention of the question as possible, discontinuous jumps that cross the threshold temporarily should not be considered.
Please let me know if you have strong thoughts, otherwise I’ll update the description accordingly.
using this for my kamala markets with the same source, could work here as you already refer to "point" in your description, which could now refer to the last day chart that plots points every 30ish minutes:
"If at any moment before November 1st, the odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US Presidential Election goes above 55.5% on the “last day” chart from election betting odds (points plotted about every 30mins), then this market resolves YES.
By November 1st, if there are no 30-minute intervals (a single point plotted on the “last day” chart) showing Harris’ odds of winning higher than 55.5%, then this will resolve NO.
Will not resolve from a determined glitch spike or fresh points that eventually move back down to 55.5 or lower (will wait until the point is static or the following 30min interval is plotted). I will not trade in this market."