After Kamala passes Trump when will Trump pass Kamala?
Basic
169
36k
2025
Kamala passes Trump.
Trump Elon Spaces
Nate Silver update: Harris (+3.1)
52%
Trump never recovers.
0.6%
[THIS RESOLVES “NO”] don't bet up, this was: passback Before Aug. 8th 6:10pm.
3%
Between Aug. 8th 6:10pm & Aug. 14th 6:10pm.
11%
Between Aug. 14th 6:10pm & Sept. 7th 6:10pm
34%
Between Sept. 7th 6:10pm & Jan. 6th (election certification)
0.1%
[THIS RESOLVES “NO”] she passed at 6:10 on Aug. 7th, do not bet up.

After Kamala passes Trump I will update all options using the time it happened, and when exactly Trump needs to pass Kamala for respective resolutions.

NOTE:

in order to prevent a confusing passing time and instant pass backs, times of “passes” in this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Through analyzing the graph, if at any 30-minute interval, I determine a candidate’s odds has overtaken the other by at least 1.0% it will be considered a “passing” for the time interval at which the 1.0% or greater difference is shown on the graph.

To further ensure bias has no roll in determining the official time of “passes” I will not trade in this market.

If Kamala odds never pass Trump before the certification of the election, “Kamala never passes Trump.” will resolve YES and everything else will resolve NO.

Example:

If

Graph shows Kamala at 49.3% and Trump at 48.3% at a timestamp of August 1st, 6:00pm.

then,

Kamala passed Trump on August 1st, 6:00pm ET, makes the options:

-Between August 1st 6:00pm, and August 2nd 6:00pm.

-Between August 2nd 6:00pm and August 8th 6:00pm.

-Between August 8th 6:00pm and September 1st 6:00pm.

-Between September 1st 6:00pm and Monday Jan 6th, 2025.

To resolve as one of the above options, after being passed by Kamala, Trump must lead over her by at least 1.0% at any point on the graph within the option’s range. If he does not then “Trump never recovers” resolves YES, and everything else resolves NO.

Any glitches on their website will not resolve this.

Comment any question or news you have! 💙

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50% seems way too high. Trump's only 8% back in the odds.

Do we really think it's equally likely Harris has a wire-to-wire victory (Trump going from 45% to 0%) compared to Trump going from 45% to 50% in the odds?

Then why aren't his odds more like 25%?

[THIS RESOLVES “NO”] don't bet up, this was: passback Before Aug. 8th 6:10pm.

@pluffASMR Might want to put the same [THIS RESOLVES NO] disclaimer on this one that you put on Kamala never passes Trump.

yes good call

Is it possible to add more weekly increments?

good idea, I might make a market for smaller increments now that it happened, I’ll link if I do 🫡

🫡

@traders Kamala “passed” Trump at 6:10pm ET August 7th 2024. will update options to reflect this now.

Now that's service!

2% now 🤯

bought Ṁ100 [THIS RESOLVES “NO”]... NO

Can you resolve options NO before the market itself? Since "Kamala never passes Trump" can now resolve NO.

I can’t because they’re linked, I wish they made that a feature. Then you could add all remaining liquidity to the other options. Might fix long markets where there are just a bunch of options that are confirmed out early but causes the rest to have bum liquidity per option cause there’s tons of options. Such as this one. @Kraalnaxx

2% now 🤯

And approaching 3%! I feel like I've missed some news today - wonder what could be making the odds swing so quickly in Kamala's favor

im thinking it’s the Walz effect.

What are you thinking specifically - that Walz is a stronger running mate than the markets expected? I would have expected that any Walz-related bump should have been priced in before the selection. (Of course, there might have been inefficiencies.)

I think a combination of a few Walz related and unrelated things that would’ve happened anyway.

The 20million coming in right after he was picked. The three rallys he has now done is probably a huge factor in showing who he is to America, everyone on the Left loves Walz, now he’s able to show republicans his logic and I think he’s really good at it.

The “southern charm” is actually working and might end up bringing more swing voters than Shapiro’s personality could’ve (tho he would’ve basically secured PA). The way he explains quite liberal views is very digestible and convincing; they’re honestly popular views we just don’t have people saying it like he does. He appeals to pretty much any family or anyone in the middle class imo they just need to hear/watch him speak.

Also the fact that the race was Trump and Vance vs Just Kamala who hasn’t opened up much about policy and is labeled far left. So with a little appeal to the right from an articulate, democratic, gun lover, family man, football coach, high school teacher, etc. might be just what the ticket needed. @howahlah

bought Ṁ50 Between Sept. 7th 6:... YES

@howahlah Probably Washington Primary results + leaked Marquette poll (which has now been published).

at 1.0% currently just waiting for the 30-minute interval point to be plotted, and if it’s above still, this will be the pass

lead widening, should be able to call it a pass very soon.

related:

PEAKMALA

Edit: Dumb question, answered by description.

@traders Kamala pulling .5% over trump, only half a percent more to consider him "passed" and her "passing" rn.

Getting real close now (0.9% currently)

bought Ṁ663 [THIS RESOLVES “NO”]... NO

it happened

has to be a whole percent