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Part 2 (but pass = 0.1% gap favoring Trump)

I believe this meets the criteria.

close but not quite, the 3:15 ended up having a 0.9% gap, now waiting for the point following this developing one.

@pluffASMR Possible the chart's rendering differently for us. I currently see a 1.1 ppt gap on the chart for the latest point. (Disclaimer: I stand to benefit a lot from this judgment.)

You edited your message, but this is also now showing the fresh point, which we have to wait to become static

Yes sorry, the original screenshot wasn't for a matching timestamp. I edited to make them match. This was the screenshot I replaced for reference.

The 3:48 point had trump lead by 1.1 🫡

Thanks for your prompt resolution!

No problem! thanks for helping me clarify 🫡

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could you point out which point you’re referring to? Biggest lead for trump im seeing was .3 so far since Kamala’s first pass.

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Yes to ensure it’s the exact “moment of pass” 🫡

scary hours...

showing a gap of 1% right now, if this point stays when the next point is plotted it will resolve at the moment of the 1% gap point.

The point is now a .9% gap and not stable yet. Still waiting on following point.

50% seems way too high. Trump's only 8% back in the odds.

Do we really think it's equally likely Harris has a wire-to-wire victory (Trump going from 45% to 0%) compared to Trump going from 45% to 50% in the odds?

Then why aren't his odds more like 25%?

@pluffASMR Might want to put the same [THIS RESOLVES NO] disclaimer on this one that you put on Kamala never passes Trump.

yes good call

Is it possible to add more weekly increments?

good idea, I might make a market for smaller increments now that it happened, I’ll link if I do 🫡

🫡

@BonjTwo this time smaller increments 🫡

@pluffASMR thank you 🙏