Will Kamala Harris’ “electionbettingodds” exceed 55.5% before November 2024?

Question

If at any moment before November 1st, the odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US Presidential Election goes above 55.5% on the “last day” chart from election betting odds (points plotted about every 30mins), then this market resolves YES.

By November 1st, if there are no 30-minute intervals (a single point plotted on the “last day” chart) showing Harris’ odds of winning higher than 55.5%, then this will resolve NO.

Will not resolve from a determined glitch spike or fresh points that eventually move back down to 55.5 or lower (will wait until the point is static or the following 30min interval is plotted). I will not trade in this market.

Here’s another similar market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/pluffASMR/after-kamala-passes-trump-when-will)comment if you have questions or news 💙

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Nov 2, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.