MattP avatar
resolved May 16
Will Manifold implement either "report" functionality or "markets automatically resolve by X date" functionality to combat "hostage" markets by bad faith actors, sometime on or before May 15th, 2022?
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to YES if, by the closing date, Manifold rolls out some kind of "report this question" button or adds a "will automatically resolve by X date" field for questions. There's still over $32000 locked up in Dr P's Trump question, with no sign of resolution coming. The simplest way to fix this IMO (without requiring ad hoc action by Manifold for every bad actor a la report button) is just to have markets resolve automatically after a given date everyone can see (maybe defaulting to a week after the market close date). If Manifold continues to grow, they will have to do something like this IMO (hence my high probability).

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
Unknown user avatar
Undox
Ṁ137
2
Unknown user avatar
Josh
Ṁ96
3
Unknown user avatar
JiSK
Ṁ82
4
Unknown user avatar
zzq
Ṁ12
5
Unknown user avatar
Em of the Night ☑️
Ṁ9

💬 Proven correct

Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Providing some liquidity, and also I would like this to exist, so this is an emotional hedge.

💸 Best bet

A trader bought Ṁ30 NO at 90%
Matt P made Ṁ231!
Sort by:
MattP avatar
Resolved "NO", as there is not at this time either an option to set "automatically resolve by X date" or a "report this question" option for reporting abandoned questions. Thanks for participating, all!
josh avatar
Josh
bought Ṁ30 of NO
This seems likely to happen, but betting against it happening on the specified timeline.
MattP avatar
Ah gotcha. Thanks! That's nice, much less mana locked up when making a market now.
SG avatar
S G
is predicting YES at 90%
@MattPrice This is the consequence of switching betting systems for older markets (in our old system, YES and NO shares didn't cancel out to equal a dollar; in the new one, they do).
MattP avatar
What on earth just happened? I had hundreds locked up in both YES and NO shares from when I made the market, then I buy a single share of YES and it cashes out an equal number of both (261 of each to be precise). Is this a result of some automatic thing done by the system because the market was created before the betting system change?
MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Curious if this is still planned. I'm wondering if May 15th might have been a tad optimistic. xD
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Ah to be clear - again, the 7-day admin resolution would only be in cases that are flagged as flagrant; those two current #Abandoned markets are huge, and have very objective criteria. One possible criteria for "huge" is 10k+ in volume? Separately: we might N/A huge, unobjective markets (e.g. a difficult Free Response market that's been abandoned), but that would probably be after more like a month. I think the penalty you described is super interesting, and could make sense from an incentive/economic design standpoint. But as a practical matter I don't think abandonment happens enough yet (aka ROI of optimizing this is low, due to high complexity) - maybe in a few months from now, after we've grown a ton!
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ5 of YES
@Austin I'm glad this is something that's getting address. I think 7 days might be too short though; some people have busy lives and might forget to check in, or have some more important life event take precedence. What if there were a penalty imposed on market creators who don't resolve markets on time? Something like for every day after the first 3 that it takes them to resolve their market, 5% of their balance is taken from them and split among everyone who had bid in that market. Then if they still haven't resolved it by 20 days later, the admins step in and resolve it for them, and they lose their whole balance. In addition to incentivizing prompt resolution, this would also help traders be less upset about having their money tied up for an extra few days, since they get some extra to balance it out.
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ1 of YES
We definitely want to this do something like this; there's just a bit of technical work that we need to do to allow us to resolve markets on behalf of another user. As a simple hack, please tag any such questions with #Abandoned, and sometime soon we can go through all of the markets in https://manifold.markets/tag/Abandoned?s=closed and resolve them according to our best judgement. (This would only be for markets where the creator is clearly nonresponsive for a period of eg 7 days after the resolution is obvious)
Sjlver avatar
Sjlver
bought Ṁ1 of YES
For example: https://manifold.markets/GregB/will-bitcoin-be-above-50k-by-the-en
Sjlver avatar
Sjlver
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Some sort of consensus algorithm would be nice IMO. I would guess that for most markets, the resolution is clear and uncontroversial... In these cases it would be sad to resolve to N/A rather than the obvious correct resolution.
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ20 of NO
Providing some liquidity, and also I would like this to exist, so this is an emotional hedge.
IsaacKing avatar
Isaac King
bought Ṁ1 of YES
I think the best solution would be to have a set resolution date that everyone can see when deciding how long they want to tie up their money. If the creator doesn't resolve it manually at that date (+- a few % of the time the market was open), it resolves to N/A. https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-manifold-allow-us-to-set-a-res
MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ1 of NO
I guess the only question now is if they implement it before May 15th...
MattP avatar
Matt P
bought Ṁ47 of YES
Looks like my initial percentage was pretty close then! :D
SG avatar
S G
bought Ṁ100 of YES
This is something we're planning to do...
Accountdeletionrequested avatar
Account deletion requested
bought Ṁ20 of YES
report would be also nice for https://manifold.markets/Adam/according-to-all-known-laws-of-avia-6b8432bc9e2b See also "What happens when market creator left and question is never resolved?": https://manifold.markets/M/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4