Will Manifold implement either "report" functionality or "markets automatically resolve by X date" functionality to combat "hostage" markets by bad faith actors, sometime on or before May 15th, 2022?

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resolved May 16

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This market resolves to YES if, by the closing date, Manifold rolls out some kind of "report this question" button or adds a "will automatically resolve by X date" field for questions. There's still over $32000 locked up in Dr P's Trump question, with no sign of resolution coming. The simplest way to fix this IMO (without requiring ad hoc action by Manifold for every bad actor a la report button) is just to have markets resolve automatically after a given date everyone can see (maybe defaulting to a week after the market close date). If Manifold continues to grow, they will have to do something like this IMO (hence my high probability).

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Resolved "NO", as there is not at this time either an option to set "automatically resolve by X date" or a "report this question" option for reporting abandoned questions. Thanks for participating, all!

This seems likely to happen, but betting against it happening on the specified timeline.

Ah gotcha. Thanks! That's nice, much less mana locked up when making a market now.

predictedYES

@MattPrice This is the consequence of switching betting systems for older markets (in our old system, YES and NO shares didn't cancel out to equal a dollar; in the new one, they do).

What on earth just happened? I had hundreds locked up in both YES and NO shares from when I made the market, then I buy a single share of YES and it cashes out an equal number of both (261 of each to be precise). Is this a result of some automatic thing done by the system because the market was created before the betting system change?

Curious if this is still planned. I'm wondering if May 15th might have been a tad optimistic. xD

Ah to be clear - again, the 7-day admin resolution would only be in cases that are flagged as flagrant; those two current #Abandoned markets are huge, and have very objective criteria. One possible criteria for "huge" is 10k+ in volume? Separately: we might N/A huge, unobjective markets (e.g. a difficult Free Response market that's been abandoned), but that would probably be after more like a month. I think the penalty you described is super interesting, and could make sense from an incentive/economic design standpoint. But as a practical matter I don't think abandonment happens enough yet (aka ROI of optimizing this is low, due to high complexity) - maybe in a few months from now, after we've grown a ton!

@Austin I'm glad this is something that's getting address. I think 7 days might be too short though; some people have busy lives and might forget to check in, or have some more important life event take precedence. What if there were a penalty imposed on market creators who don't resolve markets on time? Something like for every day after the first 3 that it takes them to resolve their market, 5% of their balance is taken from them and split among everyone who had bid in that market. Then if they still haven't resolved it by 20 days later, the admins step in and resolve it for them, and they lose their whole balance. In addition to incentivizing prompt resolution, this would also help traders be less upset about having their money tied up for an extra few days, since they get some extra to balance it out.

We definitely want to this do something like this; there's just a bit of technical work that we need to do to allow us to resolve markets on behalf of another user. As a simple hack, please tag any such questions with #Abandoned, and sometime soon we can go through all of the markets in https://manifold.markets/tag/Abandoned?s=closed and resolve them according to our best judgement. (This would only be for markets where the creator is clearly nonresponsive for a period of eg 7 days after the resolution is obvious)

For example: https://manifold.markets/GregB/will-bitcoin-be-above-50k-by-the-en

Some sort of consensus algorithm would be nice IMO. I would guess that for most markets, the resolution is clear and uncontroversial... In these cases it would be sad to resolve to N/A rather than the obvious correct resolution.

Providing some liquidity, and also I would like this to exist, so this is an emotional hedge.

I think the best solution would be to have a set resolution date that everyone can see when deciding how long they want to tie up their money. If the creator doesn't resolve it manually at that date (+- a few % of the time the market was open), it resolves to N/A. https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-manifold-allow-us-to-set-a-res

I guess the only question now is if they implement it before May 15th...

Looks like my initial percentage was pretty close then! :D

This is something we're planning to do...

report would be also nice for https://manifold.markets/Adam/according-to-all-known-laws-of-avia-6b8432bc9e2b See also "What happens when market creator left and question is never resolved?": https://manifold.markets/M/what-happens-when-market-creator-le-a60924d5a2b4

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