Will Artemis I Launch by the end of September 2022?
37
36
แน€220
resolved Oct 2
Resolved
NO

Other Artermis 1 markets:

Sep 15, 6:25pm: as with my previous Artemis market, I define "launch" as "clears the launch tower during an intentional launch attempt". Blowing up on ascent would still count as a launch (as long as it clears the tower).

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bought แน€178 of NO

NET Oct 2

https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2022/09/25/nasa-closely-monitoring-weather-while-rollback-preparations-continue/

NASA managers will meet this evening to evaluate whether to roll back or remain at the launch pad to preserve an opportunity for a launch attempt on Oct. 2.

predicted YES

@Yev BooooooooOOOOOOOoooooooo

@MattP Don't boo me, boo the hurricane!

bought แน€30 of NO

https://www.nasa.gov/content/artemis-i-weather-criteria
The potentially relevant criteria are precipitation, lightning, and clouds. In particular:

  • Do not roll to launch pad if the lightning forecast is greater than 10% within 20 nautical miles of the launch area during rollout.

  • Do not launch through precipitation.

predicted YES

@Yev All I see is a lot of "can't can't can't". It's time for "can", NASA!

@MattP SLS is basically just several cans stacked on top of each other with a pointy can at the top and two more cans on the sides. I think that's plenty of "can".

predicted NO

The next launch opportunity is on Tue, Sep 27. Here is the weather forecast for the next week (it should update automatically ๐Ÿคž)

bought แน€50 of YES

Bettors, note my clarification on my definition of "launch" in the description edit (same definition I used for my previous market).