Will Artemis I Launch by the end of September 2022?
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resolved Oct 2
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NO

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Sep 15, 6:25pm: as with my previous Artemis market, I define "launch" as "clears the launch tower during an intentional launch attempt". Blowing up on ascent would still count as a launch (as long as it clears the tower).

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NET Oct 2

https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2022/09/25/nasa-closely-monitoring-weather-while-rollback-preparations-continue/

NASA managers will meet this evening to evaluate whether to roll back or remain at the launch pad to preserve an opportunity for a launch attempt on Oct. 2.

predicted YES

@Yev BooooooooOOOOOOOoooooooo

@MattP Don't boo me, boo the hurricane!

https://www.nasa.gov/content/artemis-i-weather-criteria
The potentially relevant criteria are precipitation, lightning, and clouds. In particular:

  • Do not roll to launch pad if the lightning forecast is greater than 10% within 20 nautical miles of the launch area during rollout.

  • Do not launch through precipitation.

predicted YES

@Yev All I see is a lot of "can't can't can't". It's time for "can", NASA!

@MattP SLS is basically just several cans stacked on top of each other with a pointy can at the top and two more cans on the sides. I think that's plenty of "can".

predicted NO

The next launch opportunity is on Tue, Sep 27. Here is the weather forecast for the next week (it should update automatically 🤞)

Bettors, note my clarification on my definition of "launch" in the description edit (same definition I used for my previous market).