Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the year in which NASA's Artemis III mission successfully launches. The official launch date will be determined based on NASA's public announcements and mission logs. If the mission is canceled or indefinitely postponed, the market will resolve to "Other"

Background

Artemis III is planned to be the first crewed lunar landing mission since Apollo 17 in 1972. The mission aims to land astronauts near the Moon's South Pole. As of December 2024, NASA has scheduled the launch for mid-2027, citing technical challenges and development delays. (space.com)

Considerations

Potential delays could arise from the development of the Human Landing System (HLS) by SpaceX, which requires multiple successful launches and in-orbit refueling demonstrations. Additionally, the readiness of new spacesuits and other mission-critical technologies may impact the timeline. (space.com)