Will at least one U.S. state eliminate or significantly restrict no-fault divorce by December 31, 2025?
Standard
7
Ṁ535
2026
35%
chance

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The Mark My Words series takes actionable and popular posts from the Mark My Words subreddit and turns them into a prediction market. Hope you enjoy the format!

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1f8z60l/mmw_nofault_divorces_will_soon_be_ending_in_red/

Resolution Criteria:

  1. The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

    • Any U.S. state passes legislation that eliminates no-fault divorce as an option for married couples seeking divorce, OR

    • Any U.S. state passes legislation that significantly restricts access to no-fault divorce (e.g., requiring a lengthy separation period, mandatory counseling, or spousal consent)

  2. The market will resolve as "No" if:

    • No U.S. state passes such legislation by December 31, 2025

  3. "Significantly restrict" is defined as:

    • Introducing new requirements that make obtaining a no-fault divorce substantially more difficult or time-consuming compared to the state's previous laws

    • Examples include mandatory waiting periods of 1 year or more, required marriage counseling, or spousal consent requirements

  4. Resolution will be based on:

    • Official state government websites announcing new laws

    • Reputable national news sources reporting on such legislation

    • Legal databases documenting changes in state divorce laws

  5. The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:

    • There is ambiguity about whether passed legislation meets the criteria for "significant restriction"

    • Legislation is passed but challenged in court and not implemented by the resolution date

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