MartinRandall avatar
Martin Randall
closes Jan 22, 2024
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2024
75%
chance

Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2024 than the end of January 2023.

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StevenK avatar

Base rate 16/27 if I counted right.

ManualBlinking avatar

I'm a Doomer so this is quite interesting.

MartinRandall avatar

@ManualBlinking They seem to be focusing on nuclear and climate doom. I'm not sure we have enough time to kill ourselves with global warming before we kill ourselves with something else.

AndrewG avatar

"closer to midnight by the end of January 2024 than January 2023" would the end of January 2023 count, or do you mean the creation date of the market?

AndrewG avatar

@AndrewG basically, would the announcement on Jan. 24 count, and if they had another announcement on Jan 24, 2024, would that count?

MartinRandall avatar

@AndrewG the intention is that it's the announcement next year