Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2024 | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 22, 2024

Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2024

75%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2024 than the end of January 2023.

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Base rate 16/27 if I counted right.

I'm a Doomer so this is quite interesting.

@ManualBlinking They seem to be focusing on nuclear and climate doom. I'm not sure we have enough time to kill ourselves with global warming before we kill ourselves with something else.

"closer to midnight by the end of January 2024 than January 2023" would the end of January 2023 count, or do you mean the creation date of the market?

@AndrewG basically, would the announcement on Jan. 24 count, and if they had another announcement on Jan 24, 2024, would that count?

@AndrewG the intention is that it's the announcement next year

Duplicated from the 2023 market: https://manifold.markets/derikk/will-the-doomsday-clock-advance-tow?r=TWFydGluUmFuZGFsbA

sold Ṁ15 YES from 76% to 75%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ6/Ṁ6 NO at 76% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 69% to 77%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ7 NO at 69%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 NO at 71% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 63% to 73%

sold Ṁ7 NO from 61% to 63%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 YES at 61% (cancelled)

mattias Kromhout van der meer

bought Ṁ10 NO from 62% to 59%

mattias Kromhout van der meer

bought Ṁ10 NO from 64% to 62%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 67% to 64%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 67% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ40 NO from 77% to 65%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 76% to 77%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 76% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 77% to 74%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 81% to 77%

sold Ṁ10 NO from 77% to 81%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ5 NO at 77%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 NO at 79% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ300 YES from 65% to 80%

created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 90% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 86% (cancelled)

filled limit order Ṁ50/Ṁ50 NO at 78%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ6 NO at 65% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 NO at 67% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ100 YES from 50% to 72%

created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 9%

created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 20%

created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 26%

created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 37% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 47% to 50%

created limit order for Ṁ10 YES at 20% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 90% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ10 YES at 10% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 51% to 47%

sold Ṁ9 YES from 57% to 51%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 57%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 59% to 48%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 50% to 59%

sold Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 50%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 41%