Resolves based on day that his custodial sentence starts, or "never" if he dies without serving a custodial sentence. Markets close will be extended as needed.
What counts?
Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence.
Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts.
Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count.
It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment.
1,000
3.00@Anguss9lU he should wait until he's sentenced to death and about to be killed and then pardon himself and the two thieves being crucified on either side of him.
@MartinRandall If he's going that far, why not go all the way? As it stands, he's going to be a footnote in 2000 years but if he dies for our sins, we're talking immortality, infinite syndication for "The Apprentice", sky's the limit...
@snazzlePop perfectly fair though. Even Fareed Zakaria on CNN was calling out the insane lawfare against Trump as an own-goal and potential factor behind Trump's win
@snazzlePop what aint fair is having a trial in a city that 90% voted against you sending you to jail when the majority of American people want you as president.
@Riley12 Fairness and justice are measured by societal cost. It's transparently quantifiable when you're dealing with dollar values.
@Riley12 I mean, everyone has probably committed a crime at some point, not just presidents. I've jaywalked before. But not everyone has committed 34 felonies.
@Riley12 Fairness isn't just something people scream at their screens. All justice systems attempt to quantify and objectify fairness. You're suggesting that a conflict of interest should nullify the act of balancing the scales of justice and that fairness should instead be measured by the will of a single man. I'm saying I don't believe in kings.
Trump's response to the very sincere, respectful and direct questions asked of him in the Univision town hall this week suggests that Trump is still very worried about the possibility of serving jail time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXJWjj0ML7Y&t=3s&ab_channel=PBSNewsHour
In this clip he says:
he was invited to speak at the Jan 6th rally (questionable but what's another patsy)
he didn't ask anyone to go to Washington that day (he promoted it heavily on social media)
nobody died other than Ashley Babbitt who was shot by secret service (a nuanced awnser that attempts to exclude the police officer that survived for one day in critical condition, two other officers that committed suicide and his supporters that died of heart attacks and other causes)
His response to the linked question was so completely and specifically defensive that he abandoned any attempt to convince the voter support him.
1.8% on 2024 seems a little low in light of the NYT article today.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/nyregion/donald-trump-merchan-sentencing-jail.html
if indeed Trump has a reasonable change of losing the elections. My math goes:
for S= serving time in 2024, and L/W=losing/winning elections
P(S)=P(S|L)P(L)+P(S|W)P(W)=0.3 *0.5+0*0.5=0.15=15%
at least.