Close date updated to 2023-07-04 6:59 pm
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This market might be inverted from what makes sense. There is nothing simple or straight forward about the SBF case. In fact, there is a chance they rushed those charges and won't be prepared to effectively prosecute them for a long time. I go back to Elizabeth Holmes as a good example for the base rate, and her case wasn't actually all that complicated and it still took like 3-4 years. Perhaps the proper base rate is 20 percent, not 80?
@BTE It should be lower but I wouldn’t say it should be inverted. I know you disagree but I wouldn’t say the case against Trump is rock solid. Plus, his various trials are also complicated and likely to be delayed. On balance this may be a wash.
Finally, you shouldn’t let particular cases like Holmes affect base rates. Do not just focus on the salient cases.
@BTE Having co-conspirators cooperating helps build the case quickly. What they have to prove to get the conviction isn't particularly challenging, and I still think there are strong odds of a plea deal
Last I read the government hasn’t even been able to make any sense of the data on SBFs laptop so that case could take many years. Elizabeth Holmes case took like 3 years total I believe.
@BTE I'm with you on this one (assuming Trump gets convicted), but SBF might also plead guilty before then.
@NicoDelon I think there are jurisdictional issues that came up in the SBF case too. Something with the Bahamas that might involve dropping some of the charges temporarily. So I think it would be a huge surprise is he pleaded guilty before the end of the year but possibly they offer him a deal too good to pass up because they know it’s gonna be really hard to prove complicated financial crimes?
@BTE yes, he's likely to face two separate trials. He may not plead guilty before the end of the year, or maybe never (since he seems delusional).
