More than half of humans will be overweight or obese by end of 2035? | Manifold

More than half of humans will be overweight or obese by end of 2035?

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43

Ṁ2495

2035

30%

chance

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1W

1M

ALL

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/mar/02/more-than-half-of-humans-on-track-to-be-overweight-or-obese-by-2035-report

Resolves YES as soon as the number is higher, even if it subsequently goes down. Resolves NO at end of 2035. Only living humans with physical bodies count. Ages five and over.

For the purposes of the report and this market, those with a body mass index (BMI) of 25+ are judged to be overweight or obese. This market will use the 2023 definition of BMI.

Numbers from the World Obesity Atlas are preferred, as this market is based on their pseudo-prediction, as reported.

I will not bet in this market

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Open this back up, what’s up?

@Predictor long term markets don't really work any more.

@MartinRandall Dang it, alright.

Long term markets don't really work any more.

Certainly not if they're closed

what they work fine

they never worked in the first place

that's what I'm saying, they work about as well as they ever did

@Predictor reopened

bought Ṁ20 NO

Have some faith in the people!

bought Ṁ10 NO

What age ranges will you resolve on? 5 and over? 20 and over?

@Tripping five and over, per linked article

predicts YES

Guessing that this question will be answered by which of the following arrives first to the global poor: abundant calories or the new GLP-1 drugs

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