This market resolves YES if, by February 1st, 2027, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 is enacted into law and the enacted text establishes, authorizes, or directs U.S.-Israel defense technology cooperation that explicitly covers artificial intelligence, machine learning, or autonomous systems.
This market resolves NO otherwise.
Market Background:
The NDAA is the annual U.S. defense policy bill. It sets defense policy, authorizes defense programs, and tells the Department of Defense what it is allowed or required to do. The NDAA is treated as a must-pass annual defense bill, lawmakers often attach foreign-policy, and military-cooperation provisions to it.
Inside the current House draft, Section 224 would would direct the Pentagon to accelerate U.S.-Israel defense-technology cooperation.
The specific text regarding AI in the current form of the bill:
"
(b) COOPERATIVE EFFORTS.—The synchronized cooperative efforts under subsection
(a) may be carried out through the following domains:
(1) ....
(4) Artificial intelligence, quantum, machine learning, and autonomous systems.
(5) ...
"
As of market creation, the bill has passed the House Armed Services Committee, and the next steps are: House floor vote, Senate version, conference/negotiation between House and Senate, final passage by both chambers, then presidential signature.
The NDAA bills typically pass through the house June-July, the senate July-September, with a final compromise bill between the chambers typically passing in December.
ChatGPT estimates a 72% chance that this market will resolve YES.
1,000