Will Germany’s government pass its bill on renewable heating by January, 2024?
9
116
190
resolved Sep 8
Resolved
NO

The greens in the coalition forming Germany's government are pushing a bill that would oblige Germans that if they install new heating systems they have to be powered by renewable energies (details can be looked up).l

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The passed bill allows for local CO2 emissions and is not a decisive enough in general. This market was aimed at that passed bill and won’t account for any unlikely new bills in the last few months of 2023. Thus I decided to resolve this market to no.

predicted YES

The coalition just finished its final draft that will now be discussed by experts before passed. When I the bill gets passed and I understand it’s contents, I will close this market according to my judgment of the gaps left open by the bill

@MartinNG

Bill procedure is blocked at the moment since constitutional court granted the interim injunction.

predicted YES

Good question.

The passed bill will be close enough for this market if households can’t swap their broken heating systems by new ones burning fossil fuels or pallets locally by 2025.

I think that the core of the bill is to get rid off local CO2 sources due heating of buildings:

predicted NO

@MartinNG Seems like you will be able to swap them in some cases. Only 65% renewable is required, there are a ton of exceptions in the draft and the time horizon is longer than 2025. This is on track to resolve no imo

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I suspect the bill will change quite a bit before it is passed, but it will ultimately pass. Will this resolve no, if that happens? How close do the original bill and the passed bill have to be?