Will the "April economic numbers" be "falsified or delayed"?
22
1kṀ626
resolved Jun 5
Resolved
NO

Inspired by this post:

Resolves YES if there is reporting that any Bureau of Labor Statistics report set to be released in April has been delayed, OR if there is reporting in a major news outlet suggesting that the numbers have been falsified (or otherwise purposefully misreported).

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I've seen no evidence of this happening in April. There's reporting of it happening to data that was set to be published in May, and there's reporting that the data seems much lower quality for April, but there's nothing suggesting it's been falsified or delayed for anything in April.

As with depressingly many manifold markets: Right idea, just two months off the mark.
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-trump-administration-is-trying

Possibly relevant? Not sure if this counts as falsified, more like "just wrong" https://www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-inflation-data-accuracy-8bd2a8ae?mod=hp_lead_pos10

@traders does anyone have any evidence this happened? Any delays I missed?

@Marnix I can find no news reporting suggesting a yes on this; I believe the numbers were boringly bad and were not visibly tampered or interfered with.
Consider, e.g., https://thehill.com/business/5275564-economic-data-trump-policies/ :

Slightly bad news within expectations, no suggestions of tampering to soften the blow.
I believe the sort of measures necessary to "fiddle the books" are those discussed in this article, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/may/18/trump-statisticians-economy-figures ,

which notably according to that article have not yet begun.
As such for April this looks to me like a no.

reposted

I added some liquidity to this.

"delayed" is much more likely than "falsified" in this iteration though?

@JonWatte It's much easier to prove that something's been delayed than it is to prove that it's been falsified, that's for sure

Why bother falsifying it when they can just lie about what the numbers mean.

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