This market will resolve purely based on my opinion. If I hear a story and think it's some crazy shit, this resolves YES. Only events that happen during the shutdown (starting midnight eastern time on 10/1 and ending when the Associated Press or Fox News reports that Trump has signed the spending bill, whichever is earlier). If the shutdown is especially brief (less than 18 hours), this market resolves N/A. I will not bet in this market.
For the purposes of this question, the shutdown itself is not crazy shit, the length of the shutdown is not crazy shit, the firings that the Trump admin has threatened are not crazy shit, and the shutdown ending is not crazy shit. Anything that's solely related to the shutdown is extremely unlikely to be crazy shit. The effects of the shutdown are unlikely to be crazy shit unless especially egregious.
For reference:
The week of 9/7 would obviously have resolved YES, because of Charlie Kirk getting assassinated.
The week before that (week of 8/31) would have resolved YES, because of the frankly bonkers extrajudicial bombing of a retreating boat.
The week before that (week of 8/24) would have resolved NO, despite the Ascension church shooting.
The week before that (week of 8/17) would have resolved YES, because of that whole crazy debacle with one of Eric Adams' staffers trying to bribe a reporter with cash in a chip bag.
I might resolve based on stories posted in the comments, but local/regional news, such as "Florida Man" style stories, are unlikely to get a YES resolution. Stories that have happened before, recently, at roughly the same scale (such as further extrajudicial boat bombings) are unlikely to resolve yes, though there are potential exceptions (like, say, another assassination, or an indictment of Joe Biden). Similarly, things that are expected or have already been announced are less likely to resolve yes.
If I am for whatever reason unable to resolve, this resolves based on a 48-hour Manifold poll. As always, please remember Rule 0: Don't commit a crime for a YES resolution.
1,000Anything that's solely related to the shutdown is extremely unlikely to be crazy shit
Noted, but: I respectfully submit that notices on official government websites blaming the shutdown on the left (some with language like "Radical Left Democrats") is crazy shit. (home pages of 6 out of 15 top-level departments; I haven't trawled through a meaningful sample of subsidiary agencies)
Thus far, while Trump and other top leaders have made a lot of this sort of noise, my impression is that for the most part the actual operation of the government has remained mostly nonpolitical. This is an overt politicization of much of the administration in a way that I don't think we've seen before.
@jcb Although this is pretty damn egregious, I can't call it egregious enough for a YES resolution (It's way too close to just being about the shutdown).
Still though. Eugh. That can't be good.
An important thing to consider for this market: the shutdown might suck all the oxygen out of anything not shutdown-related. During the last one, the month-long mega-shutdown, the effects of the shutdown were the biggest story for most of the month. I remember I saw at least a dozen stories about parks in disarray, none of which would be crazy shit.