Will the US Federal government be shut down at any point on Thursday, December 25th 2025? This doesn't have to be from the current shut down, but can be a second one after the current is ended.
If Santa brings funding as it turns from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day then this won't resolve yes, unless the government uses the funding and considers the shutdown over. If the Grinch steals funding this resolves no.
Update 2025-11-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will not automatically resolve NO if the current shutdown ends via a deal
Creator may wait to resolve even if a deal provides funding past Christmas Day, to ensure no unexpected developments occur
The market can still resolve YES from any shutdown occurring between now and Christmas Day 2025, not just the current one
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Reminder that this can be from a separate shutdown occurring after the current one, so it shouldn't resolve if the supposed deal goes through. If the deal provides for funding past Christmas day I might resolve, but I might wait for any unexpected things so as to be thorough. Although I am willing to hear arguments either way.