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This market's resolution was a bit too immediate for what I was hoping for. I'm sorry about that. I've started another market with what I hope is more resilient (and interesting!) criteria.

Resolves yes? https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/24903259.light-aircraft-flips-bubwith-field-landing/

@traders do we think this counts? I can't find any good reasons against a YES, so I'm interested in any counterarguments!

@Marnix Agree it's a YES. These crashes happen all the time so with criteria this permissive it had to be a YES!

@Marnix it’s not really a crash it’s just an accident on the ground. Also crash implies a high level of destruction an the article indicates no such evidence of this

@Marnix It didn't really crash into anything, though. It landed and then flipped. Doesn't seem like it really matches the spirit of "plane crash".

@WilliamGunn I'm inclined to agree, but I can't really figure out what precisely makes me feel like it shouldn't count. Maybe it's the fact that the article doesn't say "crash" at all.

@Marnix it also goes for with a more colloquial and common understanding for what a plane crash is. If we consider the two crashes that happened last month to be more commonly agreed upon types of crashes then this instance is far enough away from those so as not to be considered a crash in the same sense.

@Marnix Would you consider landed and then ran off the end of the runway a crash? https://www.paloaltoonline.com/news/2025/02/01/small-plane-runs-off-palo-alto-airport-runway/ This is also very relevant for the US specific market.

Personally, I think if people want to see something more "catastrophic" to resolve the market, it is fine to wait. I'm sure, though saddened, that there will be more accidents. People have really conflated the safety of commercial aviation, which has a much better history, with general aviation safety. Even quite severe GA accidents happen all the time.

Small plane runs off Palo Alto Airport runway

A small plane ran off the runway at Palo Alto Airport on Saturday afternoon, drifting into the Baylands Nature Preserve and prompting a fire department response.

@MarcusM That one's undeniable — That's a crash. No wiggle room on this one - that plane crashed into the water. This and the US market resolve YES. I gotta find a way to make a more interesting market for these!

Anywhere in the world? Passenger, cargo, military all count?

@skibidist How about general aviation?

@skibidist yep! Hobbyists, cargo planes, all of it

@Marnix Not just USA??

This market isn’t about FAA shakeups?

@KJW_01294 Nope! But that's probably a more interesting market. Whoops!

Here's a separate market for crashes exclusively in the US, since it's too late for me to change this market: