What will happen as a result of the Charlie Kirk assassination?
125
725Ṁ5754
2026
99.2%
Shooter captured alive before Oct. 1st
86%
Charlie Kirk receives Presidential Medal of Freedom
76%
Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law
61%
Search warrant/subpoena executed against an individual citing social media posts about the shooting
55%
event with right leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
54%
event with left leaning speaker canceled on a different campus by that school's admin and cancellation explicitly references shooting
50%
Another political assassination (either side)
47%
At least once person is hospitalized or killed in a violent incident started by someone who thinks they are retaliating for Kirk's death
46%
At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments
36%
government employee fired for personal statements on kirk is reinstated or wins employment/first amendment lawsuit about firing
35%
Search warrant/subpoena executed against a journalist citing social media posts about the shooting
28%
Trump receives a “rally around the flag” bump in approval ratings (net approval increases by more than 3 points in the following two weeks according to silver bulletin)
27%
high ranking fed (elected, political appointee, or LEO) acting in an official capacity names a suspect later exonerated
25%
Upcoming issues of Absolute Batman pulled
25%
Kash Patel fired
21%
Any left-wing NGO is shut down
20%
5+ reporters/columnists fired (across any outlets)
19%
NYT reporter / opinion columnist fired
18%
Trump initiates a large-scale crackdown on civil liberties in response.
16%
National Guard deployed to anywhere in Utah (explicitly linked to Kirk)

Feel free to add your own, but egregiously irrelevant answers will be N/Aed. Try to keep it to things that can be connected to this event! I'll avoid betting in this market on anything where there could be ambiguity.

  • Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer "At least 10 people deported because of anti-Charlie Kirk comments": the requirement that deportations be forcible is removed; any deportation qualifies.

  • Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Federal bill named in tribute to Charlie Kirk is signed into law": only a federal (national) bill qualifies; state bills do not.

  • Update 2025-09-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the answer "Another political assassination (either side)": the later assassination must be provably inspired or influenced by the Charlie Kirk assassination, with such proof available by the market close date (2026-09-11).

US Politics
Charlie Kirk
Assassinations
Trump's Second Term
Terrorism
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

@Marnix

From what I can tell, on 9/12 there were 2 swatting attacks:

  • Newark (multiple schools)

  • Pasadena (Blair High School)

This is in contrast to swatting attacks on 9/11:

  • US Naval Academy

  • Alabama

  • University of Iowa

  • Southern University

  • Clark Atlanta University

  • Bethune-Cookman University

  • Hampton University

  • Virginia State University

  • Northwood High School

Unless anyone can find evidence of others, this probably resolves no

@digory c

filled a Ṁ10 NO at 18% order

@Marnix oups

@Marnix anybody have something to bet on? We can rename this, I pocket diled it

bought Ṁ25 NO

@digory 'Prominent social media account (100k+ followers) banned due to any commentary on the situation'

@digory I'm fairly confident this would already resolve yes, though I'd have to check who's been suspended on bluesky

@Marnix You can up it to like 500k+ then

@digory Here's one: TPUSA supports a gun control bill.

@Marnix oh yuck it can't be edited, NA it

here, i can edit it for you

Matt Dowd's firing counts for this btw

for reference:

for reference: https://www.thepopverse.com/comics-dc-absolute-batman-annual-daniel-warren-johnson

DC's Absolute Batman will be "beating up white nationalists" in new special by Transformers' Daniel Warren Johnson (and he promises it's not subtle)
At San Diego Comic-Con 2025, Daniel Warren Johnson filled us in on details surrounding his story in the upcoming Absolute Batman Annual

remember rule 0: don't commit crimes for market manipulation reasons

@digory not including attempts by law enforcement to arrest a suspect

@digory Would it be alright if I change this to "1+ person injured/killed by attacker claiming retaliation for Kirk's death" purely to make it succinct?

@Marnix it should also resolve true if the attacker is the one hurt, or if anyone else is hurt in the incident

@digory Ah, fair enough, that's fine then

@Marnix what does "forcibly" mean? Under what circumstances would a deportation not be forcible for the purposes of this market?

@BenM good point! revised to just "deported"

@Marnix only national bill or any state?

@BenM revised to "federal"

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 44% order

@Marnix this will eventually happen, and the assassin will be in some probably important way influenced by this and the conversation around it. What's the bar for "as a result of"

@digory provably inspired or influenced, by market close date (9/11 2026)

This didn't happen in the case of Luigi Mangione.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy