Which of the following California counties will Nikki Haley win in the March 5 Republican primary? (Multiple choice)
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Ṁ20kresolved Mar 16
Resolved
NOContra Costa
Resolved
NOSan Francisco
Resolved
NOSanta Clara
Resolved
NOLos Angeles
Resolved
NOOrange
Resolved
NOSan Diego
Resolved
NOAlameda
Resolved
NOSan Mateo
Resolved
NOMonterey
Resolved
NOSanta Cruz
Resolved
NOMarin
Inspired by this tweet:
Based on NYT results. In the event of any uncertainty, I’ll use the county or state sites to resolve.
Feel free to add other counties of interest.
It takes a while for California to count votes, so don’t expect a resolution until a couple of days after the primary if it’s within a few points.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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2016 results might be instructive, since the race was uncontested at that point. So any non Trump vote share is a protest vote. https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/primaries/california