Resolves to the number of non sitting GOP Senate candidates who get a higher percentage of the TWO-PARTY vote in the 2024 election than Trump.
This includes but is not limited to: Lake (AZ), Moreno (OH), Sheehy (MT), Justice (WV), McCormick (PA), Hovde (WI), Rogers (MI), Brown (NV), and Hogan (MD).
Third party votes do NOT count for this as it’s not an apples to apples comparison. For example, John James (MI) outran Trump in 2020 by 0.4% in the all-party vote but 0.5% in the two-party vote. This year, with more third parties on the Presidential ballot the opposite divergence is expected.
Will use NYT/DDHQ to resolve.
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Bumping this market and adding 1K liquidity
Larry Hogan (MD) is extremely likely to outperform Trump
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-backing-larry-hogan-maryland-senate-poll-1885954