Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2023?

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resolved Dec 31

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Recession =2 quarters of negative GDP growth. Not going to entertain any nonsense about that not being the definition anymore.

Dec 31, 3:17am: ~~Will there be a recession in 2023?~~ → Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2023?

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Q3 had 5% GDP growth. This can’t resolve YES anymore I suppose. Can it?

@NicoDelon It's ambiguous because the market creator did not specify if 2 consecutive qtrs is before or after revisions. However at this point the chance of there having been a recession even in revised terms is far less than 6% imo

predictedNO

@Cactus Market creator also did not specify if Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 counts

predictedNO

@Cactus @MarcusAbramovitch ?

@NicoDelon sorry guys, this got lost in the comments. I'm going to look at things

Ok, Q3 2022 through to Q3 2023 all had positive growth. So even if Q4 is down, this resolves No

predictedNO

@MarcusAbramovitch do both quarters need to be in 2023 for this to resolve true? Or would Q4 of 2023 and Q1 of 2024 count, considering the recession to have started at the end of 2023?

Many see this through a political lens but fundementals (inflation, employment, energy prices) are improving, Europe isn’t facing an energy crunch because of an unprecedented winter heat wave, and Chinese manufacturing is coming back to life.