Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2023?
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NO

Recession =2 quarters of negative GDP growth. Not going to entertain any nonsense about that not being the definition anymore.

Dec 31, 3:17am: Will there be a recession in 2023? → Will there be a technical recession in the US in 2023?

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bought Ṁ150 of NO

Q3 had 5% GDP growth. This can’t resolve YES anymore I suppose. Can it?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@NicoDelon It's ambiguous because the market creator did not specify if 2 consecutive qtrs is before or after revisions. However at this point the chance of there having been a recession even in revised terms is far less than 6% imo

predicted NO

@Cactus Market creator also did not specify if Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 counts

predicted NO

@Cactus @MarcusAbramovitch ?

@NicoDelon sorry guys, this got lost in the comments. I'm going to look at things

bought Ṁ79,000 of NO

Ok, Q3 2022 through to Q3 2023 all had positive growth. So even if Q4 is down, this resolves No

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch do both quarters need to be in 2023 for this to resolve true? Or would Q4 of 2023 and Q1 of 2024 count, considering the recession to have started at the end of 2023?

bought Ṁ80 of NO

Many see this through a political lens but fundementals (inflation, employment, energy prices) are improving, Europe isn’t facing an energy crunch because of an unprecedented winter heat wave, and Chinese manufacturing is coming back to life.

This needs clarification. Do you mean in the US or worldwide?

@JimAusman US. I will make another question for worldwide.

Is this for any country or for world GDP as a whole?

@FionFion or literally "any" country?

@MichaelRucker US. I will make another question for worldwide

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