Will the New York Times definitively state Israel was not behind the Gaza hospital blast?
➕
Plus
274
Ṁ110k
resolved Nov 2
Resolved
NO

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The New York Times, on any of its official platforms, definitively states that Israel was not responsible for the hospital blast in Gaza. This could be in the form of a corrected article, a retraction, an updated headline, or a public statement explicitly attributing the blast to a different party (Hamas, PIJ, etc.). If The New York Times does not make such a definitive statement by November 1, 2023, the market will resolve to "No". Official New York Times publications and statements will be used to determine the resolution.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
predicted NO

@KarlVoskuil Relevant bit:

I try to avoid the journalistic sin known as bothsidesism when information favors one version of events over another. And while much about the hospital explosion remains unclear, the available evidence points toward a Palestinian rocket, not an Israeli airstrike, as the more likely cause.

“One of the legs of the stool — the videos of a rocket exploding in the sky — now looks a lot weaker than it did,” Julian said. “But the other pieces of evidence remain in place. And the overall conclusion of the American intelligence agencies appears sound: It was a malfunctioning Palestinian rocket that most likely hit the hospital.”

@MarcusAbramovitch out of curiosity, would you have resolved YES on this, had it been published before market close? It's not super "definitive" in its conclusion.

predicted YES

@KarlVoskuil Just in time to miss this market 🤦‍♂️

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington I would have resolved this yes. "It was a malfunctioning Palestinian rocket that most likely hit the hospital"

@ElmerFudd ha, yeah 😁

predicted YES

Just concluded this will probably resolve as No, despite my initial wager on Yes.

Major news agencies, especially the NYT, rarely ever "officially" offer absolute statements unless corroborated by the party in question...claims are usually qualified as "alleged" etc.

I don't anticipate an official acknowledgement that the Earth is not flat, either. Only that so and so claims it is not flat, or reporter x reported so and was contradicted by source z.

I believe there will be major push back to the NYT article released this morning and that they could possibly be given more intel exculpating Israel.

predicted YES

I'm not sure if I should make a market on this, but do you think it's possible that the NYT had this fake smoking gun nonsense just as a way to save face and not admit their initial mistake? The initial OSINT stuff didn't talk about that "smoking gun". What probability?

A priori it seems like an unlikely conspiracy theory, albeit far less unlikely than the one about the IDF hitting the hospital.

predicted NO

Inside the New York Times Debate Over Its Gaza Hospital Bombing Coverage https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/10/new-york-times-gaza-hospital-story

@AmHa pain

predicted NO

@AmHa

“Given Hamas’s role in this story, given that it had just attacked and murdered hundreds of Israelis, one thing that I’ve been trying to understand is it would have been easier to err on the side of caution,” Garcia-Navarro said. “I mean, this wasn’t a scoop by the Times. If there was any question whatsoever of who was responsible, wouldn’t it have been easier to sort of be very forthcoming with the audience about that and lean into the ongoing ambiguity, given the significance and the stakes of this? Why didn’t the Times do that?”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/world/middleeast/gaza-hospital-israel-hamas-video.html

God the NYT is actually so annoying about this right now. They're moving at like a 1 week delay from OSINT

predicted YES

@BenjaminShindel
If they would move faster they'd embarrass themselves. Slow walking it back, making sure it looks complex in process.

predicted YES

@AmHa OSINT folks on Twitter came to the same conclusion last week I think, that this rocket was not related after all. I have been assuming that the various government intelligence orgs declaring that it was a failed PIJ rocket must have other evidence, but at this point we don't know what that evidence is.

@AmHa ...

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington Right. Article above mentions “several other pieces of evidence that have not been made public, including logs of military activity, information gleaned from radar systems, other audio intercepts and other videos.”

predicted YES

@AmHa Aha, managed to miss all of that, thank you.

Edit: well, Israel cites this evidence, I suppose we are assuming they have shared it with allies' intelligence orgs, which seems likely but isn't stated.

predicted YES

@AmHa And this is interesting

Asked about The Times’s findings, a spokesman for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said The Times and American intelligence agencies had different interpretations of the video.

Hopefully US intelligence wasn't relying on this video too much in drawing conclusions.

@AmHa so what do you all think happened? I heard from random on twitter that the blast wasn't consistent with weapons used by Hamas.

predicted NO

@will58c3 I think it’s highly likely it was a failed rocket from PIJ/Hamas. Market is ultimately about NYT though.

predicted NO

@chrisjbillington I wonder if the other evidence is relevant to the video itself—article doesn’t say anything about why the intel agencies’ “interpretations” are different. I guess it’s plausible that the OSINT guys just did a more competent analysis of that video than the intel agencies?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/us/politics/intel-rocket-gaza-hospital-blast.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

According to resolution I still consider this no, but now I’m unsure based on previous comments.

predicted NO

@JCE Big shift in tone from the ridiculous hedging of previous articles but still I don’t think it counts as a definitive statement from the Times itself.

predicted NO

@JCE This sentence, "The New York Times has not independently verified either side’s claims," combined with that insane article AmHa just posted, are what kept me from selling.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules