Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?

TIME PotY•AI•AI Safety•TIME Person of the Year•AI risk•AI Person of the Year

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Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its Person of the Year, who "for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year." While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past, specifically "The Computer" in 1982 and "Endangered Earth" in 1988.

Since the release of ChatGPT, there seems to have been a significant increase in interest in topics related to artificial intelligence (AI). For example, Google searches for AI-related topics have increased significantly, and ChatGPT made it to the cover of Time.

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14 Comments

190 Holders

692 Trades

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bought Ṁ1 of YES

do not resolve! we do not know about the user's choice! the title says a person of the year, not the person of the year.

predicted NO

@Joghn luckily Marcus already confirmed that this market is the same as Jack's one, which has already resolved NO

sold Ṁ1 of YES

@Fion well at least i didnt lose my one mana

predicted NO

@MarcusAbramovitch can you resolve please?

bought Ṁ92 of NO

Happy betting with you

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

https://time.com/6341947/person-of-the-year-2023-shortlist/

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@marketwise I don't think it's very likely, but I left some 1-day orders at 4% and less in case they deviate from the shortlist and add ChatGPT anyways.

predicted NO

How does this resolve if "ChatGPT" is the POTY?

predicted YES

Is this question different from https://manifold.markets/jack/will-ai-be-a-time-person-of-the-yea-5bf054676659 ?

Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?

39% chance. Resolves the same as https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16718/ai-time-person-of-the-year-in-2023/ This question resolves positively if Time announces that its choice for a Time Person of the Year in 2023 is AI. Both generic terms for AI, such as "Large Language Models" and "Generative AI", and specific AI systems, such as "ChatGPT" and "GPT-4", count toward a positive resolution. Since AI is not a person, it may not be called "Person of the Year", but something like "Machine of the Year", as Time did after its 1982 choice was "The Computer". In this case, this question resolves positively if a Metaculus Admin(s) can reasonably determine that the choice is continuous with what Time has chosen since 1927. If the “Person of the Year” named includes an AI and a person or group of people, such as “GPT-4 and Sam Altman,” or “Open AI and ChatGPT,” in any order, this question will still resolve positive. If Time does not announce a Person of the Year for 2023 at all before April 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode it's the same

predicted YES

@MarcusAbramovitch but is it the same as this one?

Would ChatGPT, OpenAI, or other things not quite "AI" count as a YES resolution

@MarcusAbramovitch

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Hmm - part of me thinks I’m living in a bubble where a lot of people care about AI (particularly risks from it) and maybe this messing with my ability to predict this well.