Before which day will Iran directly attack Israel?
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Ṁ260k
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO
Aug 12
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NO
Aug 28
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NO
Aug 30
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NO
Sep 13
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NO
Sep 20
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NO
Aug 16
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NO
Aug 20
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Aug 06
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Aug 10
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NO
Aug 14
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NO
Aug 18
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Aug 22
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NO
Aug 26
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NO
Sep 27
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Oct 01
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NO
Aug 08
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Sep 06
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NO
Aug 04
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YES
Nov 01

Before which day (excluding the day) will Iran launch a direct attack on Israel’s territory (including economic waters) in retaliation of Haniyeh’s assassination?

Iranian proxies don’t count, as well as attacks not aimed at Israeli territory. Day starts at 00:00 Israel time. Will resolve by time of launch as reported by reputable media sources, not time of hit. Launching an attack would suffice, it doesn’t have to hit the target.

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Someone bought M500 Oct 1 yes to 96% after midnight had already passed…

Sep 27 resolves NO

bought Ṁ10 YES

Arb with

bought Ṁ500 NO

@nsokolsky Iran is a pathetic weakling state. Continuing to bet they’ll be too scared to retaliate.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@traders I’ve added monthly options until tge end of the year; Due date extended.

What the hell happened here?

I was also wondering. Are there any related news?

Ceasefire talks with Hamas are failing and Iran previously said they'd launch an attack if no ceasefire was reached. Although the talks were failing for like a week now, I don't know why it just shot up.

@LiamRutherford Iran is all talk and no show. They’re a pathetic state in terms of military capabilities. They knew that Israel could annihilate a huge percentage of their critical infrastructure within hours if they tried a serious counter attack, so they’ve chickened out and didn’t do anything.

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 12% order

Limit order of 500 at 12% on sep 27

bought Ṁ20 NO

@traders added weekly options for September.

Do you want to also add "Other"? (if possible)

At this point, no.

Next time I’ll add options with monthly intervals.

this market gives me the same feeling as selling options on the stock market. a little bit of profit every day until WHAM big losses. I love it.

picking up pennies in front of a steamroller except when the steamroller runs over you I'll probably literally hear the explosions.

@JesWolfe So far, your prediction of big losses hasn't materialized.
I'm so far +90% profit on this market (all of which came from no bets, of course).

At time of me writing this the highest remaining number is 17%, which is a lot more reasonable than before and offers me far less profit margin.

Worry about possible steamrollers if you wish. I picked up a bunch of the money and made it home, and they're still not in sight.

bought Ṁ892 NO

have msm have been broadcasting israeli PR that an attack from iran is imminent this past week?

This wasn't Israeli PR, it was Iranian PR + intelligence assessments. It looks like they were maybe deterred? They're still saying they will though it's less credible now.

This could change things significantly.

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 51% order

@MaxArvo 1k No at 51% for 2h, if you would like to continue buying yes.

Lol thank you very much. I just have a feeling there will be news soon suggesting an attack shortly; I'm very very surprised it hasn't happened yet

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 20% order

What a beautiful sine wave

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