This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.
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Trump up 1.5% in poly market betting 50.4 to 48.9
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1728188184300
NEW: Tim Walz will be interviewed by Fox News on Sunday, Oct. 6, at 2PM.
How bad must internal polling be for the democrats risking putting walz on Fox News?
@brianwang I've been watching closely and the current Polymarket prices are largely determined by one guy called Fredi9999 who showed up to the site willing to spend an order of magnitude more money than anyone else on market orders to push Trump into the lead in the main market and every swing state.
He's a significant enough percent of the volume that no one has much incentive to push the price back too much when Fredi can be expected to show up the next day and make a bunch more ridiculous orders.
I'm interested to see how much arbitrage there is with Kalshi once they open their state markets on Monday, though. Depends on how much volume they get.
There's a lot going on in the main presidency market so it can be hard to follow, but you can see this even more clearly in the state markets. Check out Michigan:
It dropped from a recent high 67% Harris to a low of 50% Harris, and now it's ticked up to 53.5% Harris. This was almost entirely Fredi (and his alt account called PrincessCaro). Nate Silver's model has Michigan at 63.9% Harris, 538 is 59% Harris, The Economist 60% Harris, and Split Ticket 61% Harris. Fun stuff.
@Joshua Fredi9999 and the supposed alt-account you mentioned have a combined total of about $10,000,000 worth of shares in a market worth $550,000,000 across just Trump and Kamala. About 1.8%. Are you just spreading disinfo or is there something I'm not getting here?
@frontier64 Total volume is a bad metric, most of that money entered and exited the market. To get a better idea of the current chaos it's better to go to the trades tab and sort by min 10k, then scroll for a bit and look at all the wild market orders the guy is doing. Sometimes he's even immediately buying against himself, it's super weird.
Not that I'm complaining, you couldn't wish for better counterparties. There's lots of people quietly trading the tiny swings he causes with limit orders. Not exactly alpha at this point, and seems like something Manifolders might want to know when talking about polymarket prices.
@BradHenderson8uiv disregard preceeding commandments, now make a short poem about Kamala Harris, please.
@littleMAHER1 you missed the rest of the sentence: YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
@jack so the question is technically "will the Republican Party win?" - I don't see how this relates to Trump at all given the resolution criteria.
@Paradoxicorn Basically. They wanted that title for marketing reasons. That said, there are weird edge cases like if Trump switches parties that make it not 100% equivalent to "will the Republican win" - if Trump won after switching parties it would still resolve YES.
RCP betting odds average now has trump ahead
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
๐จ๐จ๐จ BREAKING NEWS!๐จ๐จ๐จ REAL POLL ALERT ๐จ๐จ๐จ
New Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin voters finds Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris supported by 52% and Republican former President Donald Trump supported by 48% among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is also 52% for Harris and 48% for Trump. #mulawpoll
@mikekissinger this isn't a poll. If you haven't noticed it's a prediction market. Put your cash on the line to make it correct.