In 2010, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was experiencing memory loss and mental fogginess so severe that a friend grew concerned he might have a brain tumor. Mr. Kennedy said he consulted several of the country’s top neurologists, many of whom had either treated or spoken to his uncle, Senator Edward M. Kennedy, before his death the previous year of brain cancer.
Several doctors noticed a dark spot on the younger Mr. Kennedy’s brain scans and concluded that he had a tumor, he said in a 2012 deposition reviewed by The New York Times. Mr. Kennedy was immediately scheduled for a procedure at Duke University Medical Center by the same surgeon who had operated on his uncle, he said.
While packing for the trip, he said, he received a call from a doctor at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital who had a different opinion: Mr. Kennedy, he believed, had a dead parasite in his head.
The doctor believed that the abnormality seen on his scans “was caused by a worm that got into my brain and ate a portion of it and then died,” Mr. Kennedy said in the deposition.
Doctors ultimately concluded that the cyst they saw on scans contained the remains of a parasite. Mr. Kennedy said that he did not know the type of parasite or where he might have contracted it, though he suspected it might have been during a trip through South Asia.
This market resolves YES if, before June 1st, RFK addresses the report and broadly confirms that he probably did have a brain parasite. The report does not claim that he certainly had a brain parasite, and so RFK also does not need to be certain for this resolution. A new quote from him saying he "probably" had a brain parasite would be sufficient for this market. Likewise, any comment similar to "I'm not an expert, but that's what the doctors think is most likely" would be sufficient for a YES resolution.
On the other hand, if RFK says nothing before June 1st, or broadly denies that he likely had a brain parasite, then this market resolves NO. If his comments are limited to saying things like "the dark spot could have been anything, the parasite theory was just one doctor's opinion and many other doctors had other opinions", that would be sufficient for a NO resolution.
These exact criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the market, suggestions are welcome in the comments.
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@Snarflak the original source was a NYT article which (despite the title) afaict actually only quotes him on doctors' speculation on the brain scan and some parasite remains, not findings afterward/confirming the worm. he'd mostly said things about parasites and his diet - it's the tweets after the article (and the update to the text) where he references his brain worms specifically 😅 🪱
This tweet by RFK Jr's account and the reply assume that the brain worm was real. https://twitter.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1788311221776568666?s=46
@DanielFilan I love these tweets so much I'm embedding them here in a reply in all their glory
@DanielFilan Incredible content. I'd like to leave this market open to see if he addresses the story more seriously, but if he says nothing else on the subject I'd count this as enough for a yes resolution.