
U.S. health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has stated that a report on the cause of the ongoing "autism epidemic" in the U.S. will be released in September 2025.
This market will resolve according to potential causes identified in the report, regardless of scientific support, if the report is released during September 2025.
I will not bet on this market. Anyone can add answers.
Update 2025-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
The market will resolve based on the factors that the report explicitly identifies as causative or contributory.
Merely mentioning a potential cause without attributing it as causative/contributory will not be used for resolution.
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No sign of a full report being released yet.
https://www.hhs.gov/press-room/autism-announcement-fact-sheet.html is ... what, a summary of the report that doesn't exist yet? Something like that.
Since the question text is "if released in September", this might be an NA, or it might be that it should be resolved based on that fact sheet thing as the closest thing to a report that was released in the specified time.
@nonnihil Looking back, it probably would have been best to include an option for the report not being released but at this point I think it's most accurate to resolve NA.
https://www.wsj.com/health/healthcare/rfk-jr-hhs-to-link-autism-to-tylenol-use-in-pregnancy-and-folate-deficiencies-e3acbb4c
Tylenol and folate deficiencies, apparently? :sigh: Added.
@nonnihil https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/22/trump-decries-tylenol-use-by-pregnant-women-00575833
Not the full report yet, but it sure seems headed that way.
Also apparently nobody older than I is autistic? This comes as something of a surprise.
I really don't think it'll get published if it doesn't at least mention vaccines as a cause. https://apnews.com/article/kennedy-cdc-acip-vaccines-3790c89f45b6314c5c7b686db0e3a8f9
@ZaneMiller Thanks for pointing this out, my intention was for it to resolve according to the factors that the report identifies as causative/contributory, rather than just what is mentioned.