Who will be the 2024 Dem Nominee, and will they win or lose?
Who will be the 2024 Dem Nominee, and will they win or lose?
resolved by
227
1.9kṀ170kresolved Nov 7
100%99.0%
Kamala Harris Nominee, Loses
0.0%
Joe Biden Nominee, Wins
0.1%
Joe Biden Nominee, Loses
0.0%
Kamala Harris Nominee, Wins
0.0%
Gavin Newsom Nominee, Wins
0.0%
Gavin Newsom Nominee, Loses
0.0%
Gretchen Whitmer Nominee, Wins
0.0%
Gretchen Whitmer Nominee, Loses
0.0%
Pete Buttigieg Nominee, Wins
0.0%
Pete Buttigieg Nominee, Loses
0.9%Other
Resolves based on who is nominated at the Democratic National Convention in August, and whether they win the presidential election.
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Important variation to this question: how would being President AND nominee affect Harris's chances compared to if she's the nominee but not President
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.