Who will be the 2024 Dem Nominee, and will they win or lose?

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227

Ṁ170k

resolved Nov 7

100%99.0%

Kamala Harris Nominee, Loses

0.0%

Joe Biden Nominee, Wins

0.1%

Joe Biden Nominee, Loses

0.0%

Kamala Harris Nominee, Wins

0.0%

Gavin Newsom Nominee, Wins

0.0%

Gavin Newsom Nominee, Loses

0.0%

Gretchen Whitmer Nominee, Wins

0.0%

Gretchen Whitmer Nominee, Loses

0.0%

Pete Buttigieg Nominee, Wins

0.0%

Pete Buttigieg Nominee, Loses

0.9%Other

Resolves based on who is nominated at the Democratic National Convention in August, and whether they win the presidential election.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Democratic Party

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@mods @ManifoldPolitics

Important variation to this question: how would being President AND nominee affect Harris's chances compared to if she's the nominee but not President

@ManifoldPolitics more liquidity please

opened a Ṁ150 Joe Biden Nominee, Wins NO at 27% order

@TheIcarusCollective

bought Ṁ67 Joe Biden Nominee, Wins NO

You can put a limit at 30, so it automatically buys shares whenever someone buys a no share and the chance of “yes” goes below 30%. It saves a ton on transaction fees and gets you more volume.

opened a Ṁ129 Joe Biden Nominee, Wins NO at 27% order

Fill my limit order pls Icarus

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