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MANIFOLD
Who will be the 2024 Dem Nominee, and will they win or lose?
227
Ṁ1.9kṀ170k
resolved Nov 7
100%99.0%
Kamala Harris Nominee, Loses
0.0%
Joe Biden Nominee, Wins
0.1%
Joe Biden Nominee, Loses
0.0%
Kamala Harris Nominee, Wins
0.0%
Gavin Newsom Nominee, Wins
0.0%
Gavin Newsom Nominee, Loses
0.0%
Gretchen Whitmer Nominee, Wins
0.0%
Gretchen Whitmer Nominee, Loses
0.0%
Pete Buttigieg Nominee, Wins
0.0%
Pete Buttigieg Nominee, Loses
0.9%Other

Resolves based on who is nominated at the Democratic National Convention in August, and whether they win the presidential election.

2024 US Presidential Election
Democratic Party
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@mods @ManifoldPolitics

Important variation to this question: how would being President AND nominee affect Harris's chances compared to if she's the nominee but not President

@ManifoldPolitics more liquidity please

opened a Ṁ150 NO at 27% order

@TheIcarusCollective

bought Ṁ67 NO

You can put a limit at 30, so it automatically buys shares whenever someone buys a no share and the chance of “yes” goes below 30%. It saves a ton on transaction fees and gets you more volume.

opened a Ṁ129 NO at 27% order

Fill my limit order pls Icarus

Great market but could use more subsidies? Tiny bets move the market...

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