In light of the shenanigans that may occur, how will you decide who won and when will the market close?

@tlaloc From the description:

Resolves after the AP calls the race.

@EvanDaniel Whoops, should have caught that

@tlaloc No worries! :)

@traders We've added some free mana as a subsidy to make this a premium market!

Nate Silver currently has Georgia's odds at 69.1% Trump to 30.9% Harris, while The Economist has it at 62% Trump to 39% Harris.

538's polling average shows Trump leading in 46.5% to Harris' 45.9% in vote share, and the 538 model shows Trump's chances of winning at 54% to Harris' 46%.

I would put four thousand more on Republican at 60% but it keeps dipping below 55% so I guess I’m doing limit orders

it feels weird that GA and PA have such similar odds right now. PA feels like a sure bet Blue, but GA feels like a long shot.

guess I better go bid up PA, brb

Both states will be very close. Both are polling within the margin of error. And we're still months away from the election. Both should have probabilities pretty close to 50%.

I imagine it's not intended to be worded this way, but the same party wins the presidency in every state.

Trump publicly attacking the popularly elected Republican governor and his wife at a rally in Georgia is bad for his election odds in that state.

All you have to do is look at the death statistics in Georgia and you can see that the Dems will have even more of an edge in 2024. The fact is that Trump's base is aging out. A younger, significantly more liberal, base is coming in. The 12k margin will expand to 50k. Buy democrat.

The electoral implications of death are always overrated. Georgia lists deaths in 2020 as 103k. Let's assume that was repeated from 2021-2024, which is probably generous due to being past peak COVID. 400k deaths between election day 2020 and 2024. Let's assume that these were 90% people over the age of 65. 65 and older people went 56-44 for Trump in 2020 per exits, or a margin of 12 points. Georgia turnout was 66% in 2020. So the total effect of their deaths on the voting margin is something like 400k* 0.9*0.12*0.66 =28k. This isn't a totally trivial number and can matter in very close elections, but it's tiny compared to other shifts. The NY Times/Siena poll of Georgia from May found 13% of Biden supporters switching to Trump in 2024. If true, that would be worth a shift in the margin of about 640,000 votes. 1% of Biden voters switching is worth about as much as all the deaths since 2020.

Stop using your brain and start using your heart like me.

We'll see if this lasts

@smnsmnsmnsmns Supreme Court race?

According to Real Clear Politics tracker Trump has the exact same lead (+4.2) in North Carolina and Georgia. Georgia has been polled more than North Carolina, but it would make me suspect that Georgia is more republican leaning compared to this prediction market as NC Republican is trading at 72 cents and Georgia is at 57 cents

More precise version:

My current thesis is even if Biden manages to turn things around and squeak through, it'll be because he was saved by white voters in WI/PA/MI. His slip with minority voters seems durable and will probably echo the slip with Latino voters in 2020 so Georgia is easily the easiest Trump flip for me

All states and districts in one market: