Resolves to the political party of the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election, as decided by the below market, unless the winner runs as an independent (ie, does not get nominated by either the Democratic or Republican parties).
In that case, regardless of the candidate's party affiliation, the market will resolve Other.
Manifold Politics reserves the right to add additional answers to this market, in case that appears helpful, but all such answers can be bet on currently by voting Yes on Other.
Smart money is moving the markets! @jim and @JonathanRay and @JonasVollmer yes you are doing it right way. @Joshua and the @jack and the @jacksonpolack maybe not so much here? I am always searching for the edge of it here, and everyday your bets are bringing me closer to it. I agree!
If you expect the debate to have a significant impact, but you have mean 0 on the direction of the move, you can buy some variance on the outcome of this very market, in the market below:
(Or if you think little will change between now and the election, you can buy a more sharply peaked distribution there!)
I collected all of @ManifoldPolitics markets for each states and ran the election 100_000 times simulating the outcome.
https://johannorberg.github.io/mm_us24el/
It is updated once every hour. Right now it has D: 68% - R: 32% with median outcome D: 282 - R: 256
I added a simulation using the pairs from the market you linked.
It goes through all pairs https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/pairwise-state-results-which-pairs simulates outcome.
I don't think the correlations affect the final result much, As it stands now I have
Normal: D: 68% - R: 32%
Adjusted (taking everything below 25% to 0% or above 75% to 100%) D: 60% - R: 40%
Simulated using correlation pairs: D: 68% - R: 32%
@JohanNorberg im curious about why the result of this simulation is so radically different from what the market says
@metachirality It's possible that, even accounting for the outcomes in the pairwise market, the sampling still doesn't reflect higher order correlations somehow. Based on the code it looks like it currently samples pairs of states in a random order, so even now I think the correlations aren't being fully considered.
@PlasmaBallin I updated so all odds for adjusted simulations so all below 25% to 0% and 75% to 100%.
I also added what states were assigned.